Blue Crab Boulevard

Major News

According to this article, the latest Pew Research poll confirms that this election just made a very, very sharp break toward the Republicans. I cannot access Pew right now - the server appears to be down. This is enormous news and shows an even harder swerve toward the Republicans than the Washington Post/ABC News poll did.

Republicans were posting higher marks among likely voters on the question of which party should control the House, a shift one poll attributed to the GOP making gains among independent voters and party faithful becoming more engaged. The independent Pew Research Center found that Democrats now have a four-point edge over Republicans, narrower than the 11-point advantage two weeks ago.

This is why this one is a roller coaster. This is now two major polls showing a hard break to the Republicans. If I were John Kerry, I'd be thinking Brazil right now. Because if the Dems lose, it would be best not to be in this country. The (Ittakesa) villagers will have pitchforks. And torches.

UPDATE: Pew is back on line. It's a very big deal.

See AJ Strata, Crawford's List, The New Editor,

UPDATE: Hotline: It may very well have been Kerry that puts the Republicans over the top. Book that ticket, Hat Boy.

"There also are some indications that Sen. John Kerry’s “botched joke” about the war Iraq may have had a modest impact on the race. Fully 84% of voters say they have heard a lot or a little about Kerry’s remarks – with 60% saying they have heard a lot. By comparison, just 26% say they have heard a lot about President Bush’s statement that he will keep Donald Rumsfeld as secretary of Defense until he leaves office in 2009."

This big a swing isn't a modest impact. This may be the deal breaker. Bigtime.

UPDATE: Thanks to Captain Ed for the link. If you've followed his link over, please do take a look around.

Politics | Gaius November 5, 2006

By TC@LeatherPenguin, November 5, 2006 @ 6:42 pm

< ?xml version="1.0" encoding="utf-8"?> < !DOCTYPE html PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD XHTML 1.0 Transitional//EN" "http://www.w3.org/TR/xhtml1/DTD/xhtml1-transitional.dtd"> Gaius, I know you're old enough, but some folks just don't remember the "silent majority" stuff Nixon invoked when he went up against an almost blueprint similar thing. I believe those folkss are, while sitting at home, raging, have never never been polled, and have never been figured into the demograph math. Ipso facto, "Bite me."
By Gaius, November 5, 2006 @ 7:03 pm

Had to edit that one, TC.
By mokus, November 5, 2006 @ 8:14 pm

This is breaking new ground for me. I’m not one to defend John Kerry, as anyone passing familiar with my comments knows, and that’s not really my point. But, please don’t attribute GOP strength primarily to a backlash against Kerry’s slur and subsequent arrogance. That’s false attribution, there’s more going on here than meets the eye.

Sure, Kerry foolishly provided fuel for the fire, but the fire was already red hot and ready to crown. The polls have consistently under represented potential GOP voters. That’s no accident. MSM uses bogus polls to try to demoralize GOP voters and suppress Republican Party turnout. It won’t work, but they’re going to do it anyway, its pretty much all they’ve got left, after gay bashing didn’t pan out.

Additionally, I’ve been taking the temperature at Lefty sites and found a decided lack of energy. They hate GWB and all things GOP, but there’s a strange stillness of spirit, almost as though they can sense dread and disappointment in the wind. Oh, they still make the same idiotic pronouncements, but their hearts just aren’t in it. They’re only going through the motions.

Look at the evidence right here, where are all the usual suspects? It’s the same at other sites too. Yes, there are a few diehards here and there, but nothing like the recent numbers, and none of the “you guys are going to get yours” boasting that was so prevalent a short time ago. Given the stakes in this election I would have thought they’d be out in force, barking and snarling like a pack of rabid dogs, lusting for scalps and plotting revenge.

No, I don’t see it, the Left is divided and confused, they’re also embarrassed by their leadership’s duplicity and disingenuousness. Make no mistake, the Democrats are a house divided, they have become so accustomed to having their unrealistically high hopes dashed at the polls, they now expect to be crushed. Let’s not disappoint them.
By Gaius, November 5, 2006 @ 8:29 pm

No, it is not all on Kerry, the numbers have been funky all along. A lot of the cheerleading has been off.

But don’t think the CW will not blame him, either!
By tahoblue, November 5, 2006 @ 9:00 pm

Finally, something to thank Prince Kerry, or is that Cary, for. Funny how the polls always seem to shift to the republicans in the last few days/

Maybe the pollsters have reduced the percentage of Democrats polled from 70% to 55% or so.

The voters probably also heard about Nancy Pelosi and what she has in store for them. Even Democrats don’t want to denigrate the troops, raise taxes and let in more illegals.

All powerful arguments - that maybe finally struck home.
By mokus, November 5, 2006 @ 9:00 pm

I agree, the Left can not do without a scapegoat to blame, since the cause of their rejection can never, ever, be them or their agenda. You’re correct, the Dems will surely pin the tail on everyone’s favorite jackass.

But, lets keep our eye on the ball. Dems aren’t going to do nearly as well as they imagine because they’re out of touch with the American people and with the values which make us who we are. Americans don’t like pole cats and we don’t like hack politicians who think they can fool us with phony numbers and MSM double talk.

We especially don’t like politicians who would cut and run from a fight after they voted to put our sons and daughters in harm’s way. Nor do we prefer leaders who vote one way and then flip-flop in the wind at the first sign of trouble. Americans won’t follow cowards or summer solders.

Dems can yelp and squeal all day long, but at the end of the day, I’ll put my faith in the good people of the USA, and I’ll live with their decisions, whether the elections go my way or not. You don’t hear Dems say that.
By crosspatch, November 5, 2006 @ 9:16 pm

I believe the Kerry issue would have the most influence on the independents. The RepubliCrats are already drinking their own partisan kool-aid in healthy dosages and the Kerry flap isn’t likely to change any opinions on either side.

Something about all of these numbers reversing direction so quickly doesn’t pass my smell test. Opinions are generally more deeply held and don’t flip so quickly unless you are an independent and have little emotional investment in either party.
By Van Helsing, November 5, 2006 @ 10:11 pm

Thanks, Hanoi John. I surely appreciate it.
By Mister Snitch!, November 5, 2006 @ 10:42 pm

Wall Street, and elections, tend to climb a wall of worry. Not always, but in this case, it’s a good sign that the Republicans are worried and the Dems are (as Bush likes to say) ‘measurinig for drapes’.
By Quilly Mammoth, November 5, 2006 @ 11:01 pm

There sure seemed to be a lot building of back doors by the Democrat Pundits. They are shifting from a position that said they would do a “1994″ to a position that is one of “changing the direction”.

I think the DNC thinks that they are going to win…but not by much.
By TC@LeatherPenguin, November 6, 2006 @ 12:56 am

Gaius? First, I’m so (not really) sorry for whatever it was I jabbered that needed editing.

Next: Do we really need to take “mokus” by the hand to set up a Blogspot account for the guy? He’s obviously not a dolt; he obviously needs to give his voice throat. Commenting just don’t cut it. Hell, I’ll cut him custom graphs!
By mokus, November 6, 2006 @ 12:37 pm

Penguin, thanks for the kind words, at least I think they’re kindly, but faint praise is difficult to interpret. Perhaps one day I’ll take your offer of help, but right now I have other fish to fry, and I’m content to comment.
By daveinboca, November 6, 2006 @ 1:12 pm

The Dem intelligentsia begins to wring their hands as the polls tighten up. The dervishes on the Lamestream Media twirl and spin and whirl their huckster Dem snake oil cures. All for naught?

In the end, it’s the voter who counts and is counted.

Just for laughs, The New Republic has this nugget on the polling:

But, to my mind, the most plausible explanation is that more conservative people tend to stay home on Saturday nights, while more liberal people tend to go out, which would give the poll a slight conservative bias.

Yeah, that’s the ticket! But then again, aren’t Republicans in bed so early that the phone remains unanswered!

BWAHAHAHAHA!

By the same token, might not “more liberal people” be strung out on drugs and alcohol this Tuesday and forget or neglect to go to the polls?
By daveinboca, November 6, 2006 @ 1:30 pm

Middle East terrorists have no doubts about the upcoming US election.

They want the Democrats to win.

The only cavil they have is with Nancy Pelosi:

Many Democratic politicians and some from the Republican Party have stated a withdrawal from Iraq would end the insurgency there.

In a recent interview with CBS’s “60 Minutes,” House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, stated, “The jihadists (are) in Iraq. But that doesn’t mean we stay there. They’ll stay there as long as we’re there.”

Pelosi would become House speaker if the Democrats win the majority of seats in next week’s elections.

WND read Pelosi’s remarks to the terror leaders, who unanimously rejected her contention an American withdrawal would end the insurgency.

Islamic Jihad’s Saadi, laughing, stated, “There is no chance that the resistance will stop.”

He said an American withdrawal from Iraq would “prove the resistance is the most important tool and that this tool works. The victory of the Iraqi revolution will mark an important step in the history of the region and in the attitude regarding the United States.”

Jihad Jaara said an American withdrawal would “mark the beginning of the collapse of this tyrant empire (America).”

“Therefore, a victory in Iraq would be a greater defeat for America than in Vietnam.”

Jaara said vacating Iraq would also “reinforce Palestinian resistance organizations, especially from the moral point of view. But we also learn from these (insurgency) movements militarily. We look and learn from them.”

Hamas’ Abu Abdullah argued a withdrawal from Iraq would “convince those among the Palestinians who still have doubts in the efficiency of the resistance.”

“The victory of the resistance in Iraq would prove once more that when the will and the faith are applied victory is not only a slogan. We saw that in Lebanon (during Israel’s confrontation against Hezbollah there in July and August); we saw it in Gaza (after Israel withdrew from the territory last summer) and we will see it everywhere there is occupation,” Abdullah said.

While the terror leaders each independently urged American citizens to vote for Democratic candidates, not all believed the Democrats would actually carry out a withdrawal from Iraq.

Saadi stated, “Unfortunately I think those who are speaking about a withdrawal will not do so when they are in power and these promises will remain electoral slogans. It is not enough to withdraw from Iraq. They must withdraw from Afghanistan and from every Arab and Muslim land they occupy or have bases.”

He called both Democrats and Republicans “agents of the Zionist lobby in the U.S.”

Abu Abdullah commented once Democrats are in power “the question is whether such a courageous leadership can [withdraw]. I am afraid that even after the American people will elect those who promise to leave Iraq, the U.S. will not do so. I tell the American people vote for withdrawal. Abandon Israel if you want to save America. Now will this Happen? I do not believe it.”

Still Jihad Jaara said the alternative is better than Bush’s party.

“Bush is a sick person, an alcoholic person that has no control of what is going on around him. He calls to send more troops but will very soon get to the conviction that the violence and terror that his war machine is using in Iraq will never impose policies and political regimes in the Arab world.”

Maybe Howard Dean should see if these guys could help him tap some of Osama’s vast funding in return for pulling out of Iraq.

Senator Kennedy and Ex-Prez Jimmy Carter approached the Soviet leadership in 1983 for help in the ‘84 elections against Ronald Reagan, according to KGB documents.

Why shouldn’t the Dems tap into their overseas “Hate America” allies?