The Biggest News You (N)ever Heard
AJ Strata points to the latest Washington Post/ABC poll and the biggest news that the media isn't reporting. The poll shows a heavy swing to the Republicans on the generic ballot question. One that is well outside the margin of error for the poll. The generic Democrat is only showing a 6% lead among likely voters, not the 15% that has been the case for a while now.
Dem Rep Other Neither Will not No
cand. cand. (vol.) (vol.) vote (vol.) opin.
11/4/06 LV 51 45 1 1 * 2
Now this could be an outlier, it could be caused by a methodological error or any number of other problems. Or it could be a real problem for the Democrats on Tuesday. AJ say this:
What happened to the increasing generic ballot lead of the dems? I have seen numbers ranging from 11-15% for the Dems. But now comes out a Washington Post/ABC News poll showing only a 6% lead for the dems! It was 14% in the last poll. I would take that as a big turn for the Reps here in the last weekend of this election. The Dems may not losing as much as pollsters are fixing their turnout models - finally.
Update: The liberal media’s denial is almost embarrassing. From this devastating poll the WaPo writes that the Dems are poised to take over both houses of Congress!
Probably the most interesting analysis comes from TKS (Thanks for the pointer, AJ). This alone could spell trouble for the Democrats:
Oh, by the way, the Post was kind enough to give us a bit of history on their generic ballot preference question:
Dem Rep Other Neither Will not No
cand. cand. (vol.) (vol.) vote (vol.) opin.11/6/94 47 42 5 2 5
10/31/94 48 44 4 1 3Yes, on November 6, 1994, among registered voters, ABC News/Washington Post had the Democrats ahead on the generic ballot, 47 percent to 42. So we know just how valuable an indicator it is.
I hadn't known that about the 1994 elections until now. That is a very, very interesting piece of information indeed.
