Unintended Consequences
Sometimes political attacks backfire. I warned that there might be a backlash over the politically timed disclosure by a gay hooker of lurid charges against Ted Haggard (now fired from his position). That backlash, I argued, would not be the one the perpetrators of the attacks intended. That does indeed appear to be happening and even the Associated Press is noticing.
For instance, Vice President Dick Cheney visited Colorado Springs on Friday to campaign for Doug Lamborn, who is running a tight race against Democrat Jay Fawcett for a seat in Haggard's reliably Republican district. Rep. Joel Hefley is retiring.
A Denver man named Mike Jones last week publicly accused Haggard — who has now left the New Life Church and the National Association of Evangelicals — of paying him for sex, saying he was motivated by what he saw as hypocrisy.
Haggard has been a leading proponent of a measure to amend Colorado's Constitution to define marriage as between a man and a woman, and has denounced homosexuality.
Lamborn draws heavy support from religious conservatives. Bob Loevy, a political science professor at Colorado College in Colorado Springs, said the disclosure's timing has all the earmarks of a last-minute political attack.
Religious conservatives, outraged by the way the accusations were made, could give Lamborn the edge he needs in his battle with Fawcett, a former Air Force officer trying to become the first Democrat to win the seat, Loevy said.
"I think there's a very good chance it may galvanize socially conservative voters to come out and vote for Doug Lamborn," Loevy said.
Said Kenneth Bickers, a political science professor at the University of Colorado-Boulder: "If it's going to have a big effect anywhere, its going to have an effect on the Lamborn race."
Bickers said the extent of the fallout would hinge on how many voters sent in absentee ballots or voted early before the news broke.
Lamborn's campaign didn't return a call Saturday.
Fawcett campaign spokeswoman Wanda James, while saying Haggard's ordeal wasn't a cause for joy, said it is just one more blow to Lamborn's party.
"You start to see clearly that (Fawcett) has been on the top of the pulse of the people," James said.
A recent poll showed Lamborn with support from 47 percent of voters and Fawcett with 40 percent. The survey of 400 likely voters was conducted last week by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Inc. and had an error margin of plus or minus 5 percentage points.
If that turns into a blowout for the Republican candidate, not only did it backfire, but it may have ruined the Dems chances to make gains in more than just Colorado.
UPDATE: For a clue as to why this is an extraordinarily bad tactic see Hyscience. Try really hard to understand why this is a bad move. Because people do not react in the cartoonish way some people think they do.
By Sheila, Sunday, 5 November , 2006 @ 7:44 am
It’s hard to see how this is going to help Republicans outside of Colorado, which was probably going to vote for one of us anyway. It hurts me to say it, but didn’t Rev. Haggard admit to committing two crimes? (buying drugs and paying for a prostitute)? I am not sure if buying either of these services constitutes a crime if you don’t go through with the act, I’m just going on my extensive knowledge of the criminal justice system gained from Law and Order here, but it seems to me that people can be arrested at the point they make the purchase of an illegal substance/activity, whether or not they actually use it. I think the Rats could justifiably say that if you do something that’s against the law, you don’t get to pick the timing of when you get caught. As the party of moral values, I think we should be standing up for what’s right, not moaning that a guy who gets caught for something bad that he actually DID got caught at an inconvenient time. It’s too late for Rev. Haggard, but next time, I hope our leaders can remember not to embarrass us by doing things that are so wrong!