Going South

This is a very, very interesting piece from the New York Times. It stinks out loud of some serious butt-covering for the Paper of Record(ed Democratic cheerleading). It seems like, all of a sudden that tsunami of The Greatest Electoral Defeat In Recorded History Ever™ may not happen at all. And the Times is doing serious CYA.

WASHINGTON, Nov. 6 — In most midterm elections, an out-of-power party picking up, say, 14 seats in the House and five seats in the Senate could call it a pretty good night.

But for Democrats in 2006, that showing would mean coming up one seat shy of taking control of both the Senate and the House. And it would probably be branded a loss — in the case of the House, a big one.

For a combination of reasons — increasingly bullish prognostications by independent handicappers, galloping optimism by Democratic leaders and bloggers, and polls that promise a Democratic blowout — expectations for the party have soared into the stratosphere. Democrats are widely expected to take the House, and by a significant margin, and perhaps the Senate as well, while capturing a majority of governorships and legislatures.

These expectations may well be overheated. Polls over the weekend suggested that the contest was tightening, and some prognosticators on Monday were scaling back their predictions, if ever so slightly. (Charlie Cook, the analyst who is one of Washington’s chief setters of expectations, said in an e-mail message on Monday that he was dropping the words “possibly more” from his House prediction of “20-35, possibly more.”)

Some Democrats worry that those forecasts, accurate or not, may be setting the stage for a demoralizing election night, and one with lasting ramifications, sapping the party’s spirit and energy heading into the 2008 presidential election cycle.

“Two years ago, winning 14 seats in the House would have been a pipe dream,” said Matt Bennett, a founder of Third Way, a moderate Democratic organization. Now, Mr. Bennett said, failure to win the House, even by one seat, would send Democrats diving under their beds (not to mention what it might do to all the pundits).

“It would be crushing,” he said. “It would be extremely difficult.”

Mr. Cook put it more succinctly. “I think you’d see a Jim Jones situation — it would be a mass suicide,” he said.

The fact that Cook, who is supposed to be the be all and end all in predictions just suddenly did what amounts to a cut and run is astonishing. This thing is not even close to being over. The fact that the Times is playing CYA means they know there is a problem, possibly a major one. Now I fully expect the media to do its level best to drag the Dems over the finish line tomorrow by publicizing any and every exit poll they can get their hands on. But we have seen how crappy those have been for years now.

But it seems that the NYT is not at all sure it will work. At all. It looks a LOT like things are going South right now for the Dems.

That should get you motivated, shouldn't it?

UPDATE: Cautionary note from Bob over at Confederate Yankee.

Oh, Hell.

And here I thought Rick over at The Real Ugly American was my friend. Then he goes and tags me with one of those blogosphere "tag" games. So you know you have reached middle age when……?

- You realize that most "Trekkies" running around today were not even a gleam in someone's eye when you were actually watching the original shows when they were first broadcast. On a black and white television.

- You realize that a lot of people have absolutely no idea what a black and white television set is. Or was.

- You remember when a Commodore 64 was cutting edge technology.

- You realize that a large number of readers are going to have to Google "Commodore 64" to have a clue what you just wrote.

- You realize that it is too depressing to keep coming up with "you know you have reached middle age….? items because it makes you feel far, far older than middle aged. I hate you, Rick.

So, I'll tag The Anchoress with this one so she'll have someone to smack around!

The Very Force That Holds The Universe Together

And yet another reason why you should seriously doubt much of the "science" being reported in the media today. Whether it is the headline-grabbing headlines of starving polar bears or the screeches about carcinogenic chicken, there is much in the media today that is, shall we say, somewhat hysterical and overblown. So it is today with this report. One that is so obviously faulty in its methodology and conclusions that it simply defies reason. These researchers are completely wrong in their conclusions.

Because everyone knows that duct tape can do anything.

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Duct tape does not work any better than doing nothing to cure warts in schoolchildren, Dutch researchers reported on Monday in a study that contradicts a popular theory about an easy way to get rid of the unattractive lumps.

The study of 103 children aged 4 to 12 showed the duct tape worked only slightly better than using a corn pad, a sticky cushion that does not actually touch the wart and which was considered to be a placebo.

"After 6 weeks, the warts of 8 children (16 percent) in the duct tape group and the warts of 3 children (6 percent) in the placebo group had disappeared," the researchers wrote in the Archives of Pediatrics and Adolescent Medicine.

They said this difference was not statistically significant.

In addition, some of the children who wore duct tape reported itching, rashes and other effects, although none of the children who wore corn pads did.

These so-called scientists couldn't find the truth if it was stapled to their foreheads! Duct tape does it all. Just tonight my wife and I mended a pair of slippers with duct tape (that is actually a serious statement, by the way). Denying the true force in the universe will not work! When you die, scientists, you will go to a true eternal damnation.

A place with no duct tape. Woe to you.

There Is No Ship In Second

If you are a conservative who plans to sit out tomorrow's election to "teach the Republicans a lesson", there is something you need to read. If you are a Republican who is so disgruntled with your own party that you plan to stay home from the polls, there is something you need to read. If you are an independent who thinks that a higher minimum wage is a critical issue facing this country, there is something you need to read. If you are a citizen of this country who does not plan on exercising a right that people died to secure for you, there is something you need to read. Donald Sensing wrote it:

I was talking on the phone a few weeks ago with a friend who said that the only issue that mattered to him this November is the war on terror. “If we don’t get the war right,” he said, “the Medicare prescription plan won’t matter, Social Security won’t matter, nothing else will matter.”

In 1851’s running of the America’s Cup yacht race around the Isle of Wight, the schooner America raced 15 yachts orf (sic) the Royal Yacht Squadron. Waiting near the finish was Queen Victoria. America won by 20 minutes, so far out in front that when it appeared on the horizon it sailed alone into view of the waiting crowd. “Which ship is that?” Victoria asked. A naval officer looked through his scope and replied, “It is America.” Victoria then asked, “Who is in second?” The officer looked again and again saw only America. “Majesty,” he replied, “there is no ship in second.”

The prosecution of the war against Islamist terrorists is so far in front as the leading issue today that truly, there is no issue in second, not close enough to be a serious challenger to the gravity of the Islamist threat.

Hence, The SF Examiner wonders whether Americans are sleepwalking into a gathering storm, much as the British did in the 1930s.

Read the whole thing, please. It is very, very important. There is no ship in second. None whatsoever.

UPDATE: See also The Anchoress and Sigmund, Carl and Alfred.

Here’s A Shocker

John Murtha lies. Which I suppose is not real news to anyone who has followed what he spouts, but the Real Clear Politics blog caught him in a big one. This time it is telling people that the Gannett Times editorials speak for the troops. He knows full well they don't of course. They speak for the Gannett company only.

Since the paper isn't associated with the U.S. military and the editorial page seems to in no way represent the views of U.S. troops, I guess it only makes sense that Pennsylvania Democrat Jack Murtha would not only use the editorial as a political tool but also tout it as more important than the news that Saddam is going to hang:

Representative John P. Murtha, the Pennsylvania Democrat who has become the face of his party's opposition to the war in Iraq, said the verdict was the right one but predicted it would not make a difference in this campaign. What would matter more, Mr. Murtha said, were editorials in military papers being published Monday calling for the resignation of Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld.

"When The Army Times, The Navy Times, The Marine Corps Times, they have all said that we're not supporting the troops, that they're losing confidence with the administration, that's what's important," Mr. Murtha said, campaigning in Croydon, Pa., outside Philadelphia, for Patrick Murphy, a Democrat seeking to unseat Representative Michael G. Fitzpatrick.

Since Jack Murtha often claims to have the pulse of the United States military, one has to assume that he knows the Military Times isn't part of the military and that the editorial doesn't represent the views of the troops. Thus it's hard to escape the fact Murtha is willfully misreprenting the nature and importance of the editorial to play politics before the election.

Ah well, he has that absolute moral authority card that he can play.

Four Wheel Drive

The animal uprising has taken another truly ugly turn with the news that yet another freak genetically engineered creature has been developed by the evil animals. Not content with four wheel drive chickens, they have now unleashed the most fearsome creation yet: the four wheel drive dolphin.

Fishermen captured the four-finned dolphin alive off the coast of Wakayama prefecture (state) in western Japan on Oct. 28, and alerted the nearby Taiji Whaling Museum, according to museum director Katsuki Hayashi.

Fossil remains show dolphins and whales were four-footed land animals about 50 million years ago and share the same common ancestor as hippos and deer. Scientists believe they later transitioned to an aquatic lifestyle and their hind limbs disappeared.

Whale and dolphin fetuses also show signs of hind protrusions but these generally disappear before birth.

Though odd-shaped protrusions have been found near the tails of dolphins and whales captured in the past, researchers say this was the first time one had been found with well-developed, symmetrical fins, Hayashi said.

"I believe the fins may be remains from the time when dolphins' ancient ancestors lived on land … this is an unprecedented discovery," Seiji Osumi, an adviser at Tokyo's Institute of Cetacean Research, said at a news conference televised Sunday.

Lord, what next? 12-legged octopuses? Would those be called dodecapuses? My brain hurts just thinking about it.

A Modest Proposal

The Daily Mail is getting a collective case of knotsinshortsitus over starving polar bears, claiming that global warming is delaying the bears starting their annual orgy of seal slaughter. Now, the seals are not in the least upset by this turn of events, but the British reporters sure are.

As they nuzzle, cuddle and play rough and tumble in the snow, it is easy to forget that polar bears are one of the world's most fearsome predators.

They can smell prey 20 miles away, smash through yards of ice with their powerful paws and, if there are no seals around, they will actively hunt human beings.

These animals gathering near the town of Churchill in Hudson Bay, Canada - known as the polar bear capital of the world - are at present little more than curious about the scientists and photographers observing them.

But it would be unwise to be complacent, for they are becoming increasingly ravenous, with some having gone months without a decent meal.

They are all waiting patiently for the sea to freeze over so they can start hunting seals, their main food source, and replenish the pounds they have lost over the summer.

But global warming is having a worrying impact with increasingly shorter winters leaving the bears with perilously little time to catch enough meat to see them through the next long summer.

Polar bears are well-adapted for surviving their hostile, barren environment. Their double layer of fur, half-ton mass and four-inch thick layer of fat means they can survive temperatures of minus 50c.

But although their seal hunting prowess on the winter ice is extraordinary, they are not well-suited to catching other prey, such as birds or fish, in the summer.

During the warmer seasons, the bears mate and give birth and live off their blubber as they wait for the ice to form, traditionally in October.

Last year, the freeze was so late that the bears were wailing with hunger and some even started to eat seaweed as their emergency blubber wore thin.

The ice is behind schedule this year too, causing concern among conservationists, although it is starting to slowly form.

When the ice begins to thicken the bears will venture out to test it with their legs spread wide apart to min-imise their weight, or wriggling along on their bellies. Every now and then, they will jump up and down to see if it is strong enough to take their weight.

Despite their rumbling stomachs, the bears, which are normally solitary creatures, appear to be in good spirits. Some are intrigued by the scientists, environmentalists and wildlife photographers who have gathered to observe them.

That last paragraph is the key to the entire dilemma, of course. Since the global warming enthusiasts are so worried about the bears, I strongly urge them to go up and check up on the poor creatures. Soon, the bears will be well fed, the seals will breath a sigh of relief and there will be fewer people issuing dire warnings all around. It's a win-win-win situation! Good heavens, we're brilliant today.

The Absolute Moral Authority Card

Need a laugh? Too much pressure on you in the run-up to the election? How about some photoshops to pass a little time with? Hot Air has them.

UPDATE: Anyone who didn't see this one coming hasn't been paying attention around here:

Alligator Arsonists Torch Tourist Trap

One of the oldest tourist traps in Florida suffered severe damage when a fire roared through it today. The 57 year old Gatorland has been pretty well gutted by the early morning blaze.

Fire crews were still extinguishing the smoldering blaze late Monday morning, so park officials hadn't yet surveyed damage inside.

Tim Williams, the park's director of media production, said Gatorland's alligators were believed to have hidden safely in a lake, but the fire may have claimed two 5-foot long crocodiles and two 8-foot pythons kept in a holding pen near the gift shop.

The blaze, reported at 5:55 a.m., consumed the park's gift shop, entrance and ticket booth, Williams said.

"Initial crews arrived on the scene and had heavy fire," Orange County Fire Battalion Chief Vince Preston said of the gift shop. "It had already been through the roof; it was obvious that this was going to be an extended operation."

Preston said it took about two hours to get the blaze under control. Crews were able to save buildings at two ends of the 110-acre attraction, which housed administrative offices and park records.

The park opened in 1949 and attracts about 400,000 tourists each year. It features exhibitions of people wrestling gators, a "jumparoo" show where the big reptiles leap for food, and "up close" encounters where guests can hold snakes, scorpions, spiders and birds.

Note that the gift shop was one of the first buildings to go up in smoke. That's where the suspected arsonists, the gators and their pyro python pals made a miscalculation and got caught in the blaze. Well, it was either them or the birds. Take your pick.

Rats. He’s On To Us.

Darn it, Uri Geller, why'd you have to rat us out like that? You aren't supposed to tell people about all the awesome powers we have stashed in odd corners all over the Crabitat.

Israeli-born celebrity psychic Uri Geller, best known for his spoon-bending antics, says the power of the paranormal led U.S. troops to the fugitive Iraqi ex-dictator.

"You remember when they found Saddam Hussein in Iraq? A soldier walked over to a rock, lifted it and then found a trap-door and found him in there," Geller told Reuters.

"Well, I know that that soldier walked over to that rock because he got information from a 'remote viewer' from the United States."

Now please forget you read this story at once. Thank you.

Castro Not Expected Back Any Time Soon

Cuban officials have now backed away from a prediction that Fidel Castro would be back in charge of Cuba by early December. In other words, he's still dead or dying.

HAVANA - Cuba's foreign minister backed away Monday from his prediction that Fidel Castro will return to power by early December, raising questions about the pace of the communist leader's recovery from intestinal surgery.

Felipe Perez Roque also told The Associated Press that there was no guarantee that Castro would be well enough to attend the postponed celebration of his 80th birthday on Dec. 2. Castro turned 80 on Aug. 13 but announced delayed festivities when he told Cubans of his surgery in late July.

Perez Roque had told the AP in September that he expected Castro to be fully back at the helm by early December, and when asked about the birthday celebrations had said: "I have no questions in my mind that we will be able to celebrate his birthday in December as he deserves."

But in an interview Monday, Perez Roque said he couldn't discuss whether Castro would return to power so quickly.

"It's a subject on which I don't want to speculate," he said, adding: "The important thing is his recovery, which he's doing in a serious and persistent manner."

Yeah, right. The last photos they released showed a very, very sick man and there really is no way to tell when they were actually taken.

Vote Counting Begins

Ohio has begun counting absentee ballots early after a judge ruled that it would be acceptable. County election officials had sought permission to start scanning the ballots due to the huge volume of absentee ballots received this year.

CLEVELAND - Cuyahoga County elections officials began scanning absentee ballots Monday with a judge's permission, despite a request by state officials that counties hold off until Election Day.

About 70,000 ballots needed to be scanned in the county, the state's most populous, Cuyahoga elections director Michael Vu said. His office was determined to get through all of them Monday, even if it took until midnight.

Franklin County, which includes Columbus, also started scanning absentee ballots Monday, officials said.

Counties wanted to begin tabulating the ballots early because of the large volume turned in under a new state law liberalizing absentee voting.

There are tight rules that the counties are required to follow if they begin early counts:

On Saturday, the secretary of state's office said counties must secure access to scanning locations, ensure that two bipartisan overseers control absentee ballots and that totals not be disclosed until the polls close on Tuesday. Secretary of State Ken Blackwell, the state's chief elections official, is the Republican candidate for governor.

This is a big, big turnout.

Not Smooth Sailing

They tried pulling the USS Intrepid out of her berth today. The voyage went about 15 feet before the ship stuck fast in the mud. The attempt has been stopped for the day as the tide began to fall.

The mission was scrubbed for the day at around 10:30 a.m. as the tide went down, said Dan Bender, a Coast Guard spokesman. There was no immediate word when the effort would resume.

After 24 years at the same pier on Manhattan's West Side, the World War II warship began inching backward out of its berth, but moved only about 15 feet before its giant propellers jammed in the thick mud. The decommissioned war ship no longer has engines of its own.

"We knew it was not going to come out like a cruise ship," said Matt Woods, the Intrepid Sea, Air & Space Museum's vice president for operations.

Six tugboats had strained to move the giant ship.

"We were able to move her 15 feet, and then she came to a halt. We tried to add more power with another tugboat but we couldn't wiggle her free," said Jeffrey McAllister, the chief pilot of the tugboat operation.

"We were missing our open window. We had to give up because the tides were going down," he added. "She was moving, we were hopeful, she started to creep along but then she stopped."

"It was very disappointing," said McAllister.

Monday's departure was timed to take advantage of the yearly high tide so the tugs could pull the 27,000-ton ship out of the slip where it has rested in up to 17 feet of mud. Removal of 600 tons of water from the Intrepid's ballast tanks gave the ship added buoyancy, and dredges removed 15,000 cubic yards of mud to create a channel from dockside to deeper water.

Hmmmm. I don't think they dredged quite enough if the props stuck.

Intentionally Eroding Public Support

James Wilson has a long piece in the Opinion Journal today that analyzes the media coverage of the Iraq war by looking at the coverage of the Vietnam war. The results are about what you'd expect with a media out to influence - quite negatively - public opinion in the US. His opening paragraphs really say it all, I think:

We are told by careful pollsters that half of the American people believe that American troops should be brought home from Iraq immediately. This news discourages supporters of our efforts there. Not me, though: I am relieved. Given press coverage of our efforts in Iraq, I am surprised that 90% of the public do not want us out right now.

Between Jan. 1 and Sept. 30, 2005, nearly 1,400 stories appeared on the ABC, CBS and NBC evening news. More than half focused on the costs and problems of the war, four times as many as those that discussed the successes. About 40% of the stories reported terrorist attacks; scarcely any reported the triumphs of American soldiers and Marines. The few positive stories about progress in Iraq were just a small fraction of all the broadcasts.

When the Center for Media and Public Affairs made a nonpartisan evaluation of network news broadcasts, it found that during the active war against Saddam Hussein, 51% of the reports about the conflict were negative. Six months after the land battle ended, 77% were negative; in the 2004 general election, 89% were negative; by the spring of 2006, 94% were negative. This decline in media support was much faster than during Korea or Vietnam.

Naturally, some of the hostile commentary reflects the nature of reporting. When every news outlet struggles to grab and hold an audience, no one should be surprised that this competition leads journalists to emphasize bloody events. To some degree, the press covers Iraq in much the same way that it covers America: it highlights conflict, shootings, bombings, hurricanes, tornadoes, and corruption.

Read the whole thing because Wilson takes a very hard look at the media and what it wrought in Vietnam and what it is trying to do again in Iraq. He also dismantles a number of strongly held lefty myths about what really happened in Vietnam and here at home during that war.

This Means War

John, over at Argghhh! has launched an assault on Cassandra at Villainous Company. I would not want to be in his shoes, paybacks will be harsh and without mercy!

But it is all in good fun (I hope for John's sake!) and is meant to help spur interest in Project Valour-IT. Please help out and support our wounded heroes. There is a button on the sidebar where you can donate.

Righty in a Lefty State had a good idea and listed all the members of the Army Stong team. Since I can cut and paste with the best, I cheerfully stole the list!

Project Valour-IT Army Strong team blogRoll …

A Day In Iraq
A Second Hand Conjecture
A Storm In Afghanistan ***
Adjusting to life after serving in Iraq
American Soldier
Andi's World
Andrew Olmsted
Armchair Generalist
ArmyWifeToddlerMom ***
Babalu Blog ***
Badgers Forward
Bear Creek Ledger ***
Billoblog
Blackfive (Our Fearless Leader!)
Castle Argghhh! ***
Cheeseburgers in Paradise
Chez Diva
Combs Spouts Off ***
Conservative Musings
Cop The Truth
Cursed by a Classical Education
Dadmanley ***
Daniel in Brookline ***
Dhimmi This!
From My Position… On the way! ***
G.R.I.T.S. a/k/a Keep My Soldier Safe ***
Gazing at the Flag
Hitting Metal with a Hammer
HomeFront Six ***
Hooah Wife ***
IMAO (RightWingDuck)
In Training
INDCJournal
Infamy or Praise
Irons in the Fire ***
Ladies Logic
maggies meanderings and shameless plugs
Milblogging.com
Military Families Voice of Victory
Military Matters- Uncle Jimbo
Miss Ladybug
mr. blackandwhite
Mudville Gazette
Musing Minds ***
My Life As A Military Spouse ***
My Side of the Puddle ***
No More Spin
NoisyRoom.net
Not Exactly Rocket Science ***
Outside the Beltway | OTB ***
Patiently Waiting….
Pereiraville
periapsis.org
Prochein Amy
Random Thoughts
Recruiting Tirade
Reverse Retina
Righty in a lefty state ***
Sabot Loaded
Seixon
Sgt Hook
Shultz Infosystems
Signaleer ***
sisu
Some Soldier's Mom
Sons of the Republic
Sunny Wisconsin Weather
Tammi's World
Technicalities ***
Techography ***
That Fallen Angel
The Missal ***
The Patriette
The Pugil Stick ***
The Pumpkin Spy
The Thunder Run ***
Ushanka.us
Whizbang
Wild Tangents
You Betcha I'm a Proud ARMY Mom