Going South

This is a very, very interesting piece from the New York Times. It stinks out loud of some serious butt-covering for the Paper of Record(ed Democratic cheerleading). It seems like, all of a sudden that tsunami of The Greatest Electoral Defeat In Recorded History Ever™ may not happen at all. And the Times is doing serious CYA.

WASHINGTON, Nov. 6 — In most midterm elections, an out-of-power party picking up, say, 14 seats in the House and five seats in the Senate could call it a pretty good night.

But for Democrats in 2006, that showing would mean coming up one seat shy of taking control of both the Senate and the House. And it would probably be branded a loss — in the case of the House, a big one.

For a combination of reasons — increasingly bullish prognostications by independent handicappers, galloping optimism by Democratic leaders and bloggers, and polls that promise a Democratic blowout — expectations for the party have soared into the stratosphere. Democrats are widely expected to take the House, and by a significant margin, and perhaps the Senate as well, while capturing a majority of governorships and legislatures.

These expectations may well be overheated. Polls over the weekend suggested that the contest was tightening, and some prognosticators on Monday were scaling back their predictions, if ever so slightly. (Charlie Cook, the analyst who is one of Washington’s chief setters of expectations, said in an e-mail message on Monday that he was dropping the words “possibly more” from his House prediction of “20-35, possibly more.”)

Some Democrats worry that those forecasts, accurate or not, may be setting the stage for a demoralizing election night, and one with lasting ramifications, sapping the party’s spirit and energy heading into the 2008 presidential election cycle.

“Two years ago, winning 14 seats in the House would have been a pipe dream,” said Matt Bennett, a founder of Third Way, a moderate Democratic organization. Now, Mr. Bennett said, failure to win the House, even by one seat, would send Democrats diving under their beds (not to mention what it might do to all the pundits).

“It would be crushing,” he said. “It would be extremely difficult.”

Mr. Cook put it more succinctly. “I think you’d see a Jim Jones situation — it would be a mass suicide,” he said.

The fact that Cook, who is supposed to be the be all and end all in predictions just suddenly did what amounts to a cut and run is astonishing. This thing is not even close to being over. The fact that the Times is playing CYA means they know there is a problem, possibly a major one. Now I fully expect the media to do its level best to drag the Dems over the finish line tomorrow by publicizing any and every exit poll they can get their hands on. But we have seen how crappy those have been for years now.

But it seems that the NYT is not at all sure it will work. At all. It looks a LOT like things are going South right now for the Dems.

That should get you motivated, shouldn't it?

UPDATE: Cautionary note from Bob over at Confederate Yankee.

• 

  By crosspatch, November 7, 2006 @ 12:15 am

  Cap’n Ed has a link to the Pew poll internals on his site. It looks worse for the Dems than I thought. After looking at those numbers, the Republicans need to be broadcasting what those Prince George’s County, MD community leaders said about the Democratic Party and I mean broadcast it far and wide. If the Dems start to shed minority support, the wheels are off the cart if one is to believe what they are seeing in those Pew numbers.

• 

  By mokus, November 7, 2006 @ 2:36 pm

  Thanks for the Confederate Yankee link, those guys at DU are a hoot. They remind me of something Phil Ochs wrote about: (I’ve taken liberties with his lyrics)

  I vote for the democtratic party
  They want the U.N. to be strong
  I go to all the Pete Seeger concerts
  He sure gets me singing those songs

  But don’t talk about revolution
  That’s going a little bit too far
  I’ll send all the money you ask for
  But don’t ask me to come on along
  So love me, love me, love me, I’m a liberal

  Once I was young and impuslive
  I wore every conceivable pin
  Even went to the socialist meetings
  Learned all the old union hymms
  But now I’ve grown older and wiser
  That’s why I’m turning you in
  So love me, love me, love me, I’m a liberal.

Other Links to this Post

1. bRight & Early » First Cup 11.07.06 — November 7, 2006 @ 5:58 am

2. The Right Nation — November 7, 2006 @ 9:50 am