Peter Brown, the assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute, argues that no matter who wins tomorrow, not a lot will change. But he also mentions that if the Democrats should win at least one chamber, the level of partisan viciousness will increase substantially.
Whether the Democrats take control of one or both houses of Congress this November, or even if they don't, little will happen in Washington, D.C. to solve most of the nation's critical domestic problems.
That's because no matter what happens come Election Day, there will be fewer consensuses and more partisanship, if that is possible, in the coming Congress than in the two years since President George W. Bush's re-election.
One exception might be immigration legislation. That is the issue on which the president and Democrats in the House of Representatives generally agree. Yet, the ability of a Senate minority, regardless of which party is in control, to block legislation could circumvent action there also.
Regardless of whether anything gets done legislatively, a sure bet is that if the Democrats do take control of either chamber they will use their majority to embarrass the Bush administration.
Majority status comes with the power to issue subpoenas. If in control, Democrats will hold high-profile hearings that will embarrass the president and his party, providing great television and even further sharpening the ideological divide.
The current GOP congressional majority hasn't been able to come up with enough votes to manage solutions to immigration, health insurance, or extension of the tax cuts that President Bush and most Republicans favor.
And if we see divided government — Democrats in control of one or both houses of Congress, and Bush in the White House – little legislation is likely on the big issues as both sides position themselves for the 2008 presidential election.
No matter what happens at the polls this November, President Bush will remain in the White House to veto legislation that might come out of Congress should the Democrats take control. The Senate rules that allowed the Democratic minority to frustrate GOP initiatives for the last two years would mean the GOP would certainly return the favor if they lose their majority.
And even if the Republicans retain power, their margin will surely be smaller than the past two years, when little was accomplished, and in that case the Democrats will be even better equipped to stop the GOP from enacting its priorities.
In a sense, the fact that the Democrats have not been able to lock this election yet is itself a defeat for them and their (lack of) message for the nation. Regardless of who wins tomorrow, will the victory be worth having? That may be another story altogether.
Win or lose, I think that the outcome of this midterm election will be a significant downward turning point for the Democrats.
With a win of any size, the netroots-liberal-lefties will demand vengeance, frogmarching and impeachement, payback time for Rove and the Rethuglicans! From writings in some of the more (ahem!) expressive blogs, victory is going to be cause for wild celebration and witch burnings.
This will be much to the chagrin and embarrassment of the more ‘centrist’ elements of the Dems, and when satisfaction and vengeance is not bloodily forthcoming, a great rift of spoiled children screaming in anger will rock the party.
But…
With a loss, I fear that the Demcrats will be so marginalized as to not be able to field a viable platform even as far out as ’08. Sure, John Kerry will be hanged as scapegoat, and the internecine warfare will involve much throat-slitting and be fun to watch, but the end result will be a weakened, fatally split party.
And where’s the fun in that? We’ll have to sit around for at least 8 years while they retool, regroup and rejoin America, and the American Political Process.
A Lieberman victory will shred the BDS Left. Their 15 minutes will have expired, and the check for their masquerade party will come due. The problem is they’re intellectually bankrupt and everyone will know it on Wednesday morning.
Forget the smoke and mirrors, the noise and nonsense. Joe Lieberman has put a wooden stake through their hearts, hung garlic around their necks, and wiped the smirks off their faces. He’s got them by the nape of the neck and he’s going to jerk them silly. Good for him, they have it coming and they richly deserve it.
The establishment Democrat Party will court Joe Lieberman like he was the prettiest debutante at the ball, and the netroosters can crow from dawn to dusk, but few will heed their calls, or bow to their delusional fantasies. Kos and his crowd will be revealed as nothing more than an angry mob, yesterday’s self deluded flash in the pan.