They’re Worried
The folks over at The New Republic are honest enough to be very, very worried at the results of the Pew poll that shows a sharp break toward the Republicans. They dig into the cross tab data and conclude that it is impossible to just explain this away as an outlier.
John Judis and I have been e-mailing about the alarming Pew poll that came out today. It reflects the same trends captured by that earlier Washington Post/ABC poll, except that the trends are, gulp, even more pronounced. Worse, the folks at Pew have graciously posted their cross-tabs, which makes it nearly impossible to rationalize the lousy results. As John points out, the fact that Democrats' 15-point advantage among white women last month has turned into a 2-point disadvantage today is incredibly ominous. Unfortunately, it's not quite as ominous as the erosion in the Democrats' advantage among Northeasterners: from 26 points to 9. The Northeast is, of course, a region where Democrats are banking on roughly half a dozen pick-ups. That kind of dropoff isn't going to get the job done. (One bright spot: the Dems' advantage in the Midwest held steady.)
The only result John and I disagree on is the fallout from the Kerry joke. Nearly 20 percent of independents told Pew that the joke raised doubts in their minds about voting Democratic (versus 36 percent of Republicans and 5 percent of Dems). John thinks that's a disastrously high number. I think it could be bad news, but it need not be. My feeling is that a good quarter to a third of all independents are basically Republicans. And, if you'll permit me a little armchair psychologizing, I think people who call themselves independents but are almost certain to vote Republican typically look for a convenient pretext to justify their vote. My guess is that the Kerry joke has provided that pretext, even though the outcome of their vote was never really in doubt.
I have already expressed my opinion on that poll as well as the other ones that showed a sharp change in direction. It is interesting to see the concern from TNR, though. I had not paid attention to that detail that they caught. The erosion of support in key sectors might make this even worse for the Dems than I thought at first.
And Kerry likely did do serious damage. The question is: was it enough to derail the Dems?
By Quilly Mammoth, Monday, 6 November , 2006 @ 10:06 am
One key will be people on the ground telling their friends and co-workers that the Kerry joke was not a “one off” but reflects the Democrat position on the troops and thus national defense. It _proves_ that the Democrats cannot be trusted with defense.