Will Saddam’s Sentence Affect The Vote?

Peter Baker asks the question. The answer, I suspect is not that Saddam's death sentence will have an impact on the election directly. Rather, I believe the impact will come from the reactions to the conviction and sentencing.

GRAND ISLAND, Neb., Nov. 5 – President Bush and politicians from both parties hailed the conviction of Saddam Hussein on Sunday but disagreed on its larger meaning as campaign strategists tried to gauge the political impact just 48 hours before hard-fought midterm elections.

Speaking in the shadow of Air Force One on a Texas tarmac and at later campaign events, Bush called the verdict a "landmark event" in Iraq's transition to democracy, and aides hoped it would be seen as vindication of his decision to go to war. Democrats were quick to agree that justice had been done for a vicious tyrant but argued it would not fix what they see as the debacle in Iraq.

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Other Republicans, who have been on the defensive over the war as U.S. troop casualties spiked to a two-year high, quickly jumped on the bandwagon. "This verdict is a victory for justice and a victory for the Iraqi people and all freedom-loving people in the Middle East," said House Majority Leader John Boehner (Ohio). His whip, Roy Blunt (Mo.), said the world is "safer because Saddam Hussein sits on death row, not in a palace in Baghdad plotting to harm millions of innocent Americans and Iraqis."

Democrats praised the verdict while still bashing Bush. "Tragically, I believe today's verdict does not change the fact that the administration's policy in Iraq has been the most incompetent execution of American foreign policy in my lifetime," said House Minority Whip Steny Hoyer (Md.). Senate Minority Leader Harry M. Reid (Nev.) said "the Iraqis have traded a dictator for chaos. Neither option is acceptable, especially when it is our troops who are caught in the middle."

Appearing on ABC's "This Week," Democratic National Committee Chairman Howard Dean called the court's decision "a great verdict" and said Hussein "is a war criminal and he's getting what he deserves." But, Dean said, the war remains a mistake. "This was a miscalculation by people who didn't understand what they were getting into. And if they'd listened to Colin Powell and the rest of the military, they wouldn't have gotten into it."

The mistake the Democrats just made here is that they praised the conviction but then reverted to defeatist rhetoric. I rather suspect that average Americans do not like defeatist language in general. This is a case of seriously misjudging the sentiments of Americans, I think. Many who are unhappy with the conduct of the war to date are still not in favor of losing the war.

The Democrats may have reminded enough of those undecided what the party stands for these days. The results may not be at all what the Democrats had hoped for.