Perfect Storm?

Michael Totten warns that the situation in Lebanon is deteriorating rapidly. This has largely passed under the notice of American media and the chattering classes who are so swept up in worrying about American politics (I am not excused here). But the withdrawal of Hezbollah from the Lebanese government is very important. There is something going on here at the same time trial balloons are being lofted that indicate that the American government may be thinking about talking to Syria and Iran.

While Syria and Iran may be about to conquer Lebanon.

A perfect storm may be brewing in Lebanon.

I’ve been under Tornado Watch probably ten times or so in the American Midwest. Not once did a tornado touch down anywhere near me while I was on alert. Several tornadoes, though, blew through the area out of the blue with no warning on different days. So consider this a storm watch weather forecast for Lebanon with that level of built-in unpredictability.

The Lebanese government says Syria and Iran aim to overthrow the elected government in Beirut and reconquer the country. Whether they are actually trying to do this right now or not is unknown. There should be no doubt, though, that if they don’t have a plan to execute now it’s because they want to do it later instead.

Meanwhile, a group that calls itself “Al Qaeda in Lebanon” appeared from Lord-only-knows-where and directly threatened to destroy the March 14 government. “Al Qaeda in Lebanon” may or may not exist as a wing of bin Laden’s Al Qaeda. If they do, they’re serious. If they don’t, they’re a Syrian proxy. Either way, it doesn’t look good. This is not a prank phone call.

These threats to Beirut’s elected government are concurrent with Hezbollah’s and Amal’s resignation from the Lebanese cabinet. Hezbollah and Amal quit for two reasons. The first is that the March 14 bloc refused to give Nasrallah and friends who lost last year’s election more power in a “national unity” government. The second is because it was time for the cabinet to move ahead on the Hariri tribunal. Hezbollah will not tolerate the prosecution of their patron in Damascus.

You really should read the whole thing. Totten has a lot of contacts over in that part of the world and is better informed than the "major" media. The fact is, that we have "realists" suddenly ascendant in Washington. The problem is that their reality bears no resemblance to actual, objective reality as it exists in the world. We cannot negotiate with the countries that are leading this conquest. That reality gives them a victory that will only lead to more and more demands.