Venezuelan Election Sources

Publius Pundit is, as always, invaluable for information about what is going on down in Venezuela right now. They report that the election today might not be the Chavez walkover that the international media has been propagandizing reporting for weeks now.

Based on who I’ve talked to, here is the latest reading of what is believed to be likely to happen Sunday. It pretty much makes sense - on Monday, we can see how it stacks to reality.

1. Markets went hog wild Friday and one source tells me it’s because the markets are pricing in a Manuel Rosales victory over Hugo Chavez. Internal polls put Rosales five to 10 points ahead of Chavez. None show him behind and there is very high optimism in the Rosales camp. (I remember the high optimism pre-recall referendum so I am cautious about that. But they are insistent that they have the votes to win.)

2. Smartmatic in under probe for giving bribes by CIFUS, the federal agency investigating them, and the DOJ for tax-evasion. The news is having an explosive effect in Caracas, putting lots of pressure and scrutiny on those guys and on the observers.

3. The U.S. embassy’s warning to U.S. expats to stockpile food, water and medicine for the expected weekend turmoil somehow got out to Venezuelans who are also now panic-shopping in some parts. The government has now warned them that there is to be “no nervous shopping.”

4. Civil society groups will be flooding the place and every polling station looking for irregularities. Lots of them are lawyers. People in general are on the lookout for and expecting, fraud. The rumors are flying wildly. Sumate is taking a very low-key but critical role in the monitoring - they’ve already pointed out several avenues for trouble and are well prepared for shenanigans.

5. The international electoral observers, holed up in Caracas hotels until showtime, are getting very disgusted with the chavistas who are propagandizing them to death with leaflets, seminars and stuff they can tell is meant to influence their views. Most are going in with an honest objectivity so they are already getting suspicious by this chavista love campaign. These include the OAS, the EU, the Spaniards from some university and the Carterites.

There is a lot more information. They also point to an analysis in Venezuela Today that paints three possible outcomes. They ain't pretty. Reuters and AFP continue to trumpet an expected Chavez victory. But look at item 5 in Publius Pundit's roundup - it may not happen if the vote is clean. If the vote isn't, Chavez may end up in real trouble fast. We can but hope.