Hillary’s Problem

Jed Babbin takes a look at Hillary Clinton's biggest problem. Writing over at Real Clear Politics, Babbin points out that holding the center is the only possible way for Clinton to win the White House. And Nancy Pelosi may be the one to sink that possibility.

Hillary Clinton has a problem. Its name is Nancy Pelosi. Clinton's run for the White House is being built – as was her husband's – on the idea of a "new democrat" who accurately triangulated between liberal and conservative well enough to shroud liberal policy with a cloak of moderation. The cloak was so tightly-woven and the media so compliant that no matter what Clinton did – from his first presidential act ("don't ask, don't tell") to the "wag the dog" episode in the impeachment days – he escaped scrutiny. But no matter how hard Mrs. Clinton clings to the Clinton Cloak, Speaker-to-be Pelosi's Animal House will be sticking its head out from every fold.

The timing for Sen. Clinton couldn't be better, or worse. The country has just handed the Dems control of both houses of Congress, President Bush is swimming in circles on Iraq and for the next two years Clinton has the opportunity to win her spurs by accomplishing something substantive. If she is a leader, now is the time for her to show it. The pressure is on, because if she can't manage more than campaign fundraising between now and November 2008, she'll have a hard time getting to the 270 electoral votes needed to win the White House. Clinton knows that the 2006 vote was against George Bush and his Iraq policy, not for liberal nostrums peddled by her House peers. The problem for Clinton is Pelosi and her committee chairmen who are some of the most out-of-the-mainstream libs in the land.

Polls such as CNN's (reported by CQ Politics) analyzing election results in six of the most hotly contested states – Missouri, Montana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island and Virginia – show that self-described moderates voted for Democrats by margins from 52-65%. (CQ also reported that in nineteen of the twenty-eight House seats captured by the Dems, voters had favored Bush over Kerry in 2004). The new House Dems aren't a radical bunch. Among the Blue Dogs, "fighting Dems" and the rest, there are enough moderates that could form a core of rebels big enough to stall Pelosi's agenda. Pelosi has been dealing with this, so far, by threatening all sorts of horribles to be inflicted on those who don't toe her line, from rotten committee assignments to awful office space. The effect of that approach can only last a while longer.

Read the whole thing, it's worth it. Hillary will have to fight against the Congressional leadership's worst tendencies. Because if the centrist voters are alienated, she can't win. It really is that simple.