Going Broke?

Here's an interesting report from the Washington Post. Roger Stern, an economic geographer at Johns Hopkins University, completed an analysis of Iran's oil production. The conclusion is that Iran is facing a steep decline in oil exports. It is so serious that oil exports could cease entirely by 2015.

Iran is suffering a staggering decline in revenue from its oil exports, and if the trend continues income could virtually disappear by 2015, according to an analysis published yesterday in a journal of the National Academy of Sciences.

Iran's economic woes could make the country unstable and vulnerable, with its oil industry crippled, Roger Stern, an economic geographer at Johns Hopkins University, said in the report and in an interview.

Iran earns about $50 billion a year in oil exports. The decline is estimated at 10 to 12 percent annually. In less than five years, exports could be halved, and they could disappear by 2015, Stern predicted.

Now what is not apparent here is why this is the case. There is a hint that Iran is not reinvesting in its oil production facilities. This could be a situation where the continued diversion of money to the nuclear weapons program is starving other sectors of the economy. Stern thinks the falling exports and revenues could make Iran more tractable in the future. I'd point out that it may make a newly-minted nuclear weapon state more dangerous. (Note: I can't find a link to the report itself, will continue to look for one and will add it if I find it.)

UPDATE: PDF here. Thanks to John Campbell for emailing that link.