More To Think About
Earlier today I linked to an article at Real Clear Politics by Jack Kelly. It pointed out that Iran's failing oil infrastructure could touch off a regional war. Murdoc Online points out the same fact. The old saying desperate times call for desperate measures comes to mind.
But there is a third side that I think we need to be aware of and prepared for: Desperation.
Desperate times require desperate measures, they say, and the mullahs are finding themselves in desperate times that promise only to become more desperate. They will be facing increased pressure internally from their repressed population and they will be facing increased pressure externally as their nuclear program progresses and their hand in the Iraqi insurgency gets more spotlight. In short, things are bad and getting worse by the week in ol' Persia.
Desperate times? Check.
One thing to keep in mind when discussing Iran's bad position, though, is that they won't be "out of oil" soon. They will be just be out of oil to export, which will cut 70% of their revenue. But they'll still have oil for, say, tanks and stuff.
Iran needs oil exports for 70% of the nation's income. Where will that income come from if the oil infrastructure fails? There are a lot of people arguing that the fact of declining oil income will make Iran more tractable in the future. I rather suspect that there is good reason to believe the exact opposite. And there is also a nagging question: what are they planning as an alternative source of revenue when their infrastructure does fail. They have known full well the condition of their oil industry better and for longer than the researchers at Johns Hopkins.
So what are they working on?
By Luther McLeod, Thursday, 28 December , 2006 @ 9:47 pm
“So what are they working on?”
Dual technology of course. X amount of power generation, X amount of bombs. Power keeps them alive, bombs keep us on edge. We are not dealing with stupid f**** here. Will they succeed, depends on our backbone.