Is The Surge Already Working?
The Associated Press of all outlets, is reporting that the "Mahdi Army" of thug Muqtada al Sadr is increasingly off balance and appears to be reeling under pinpoint attacks that is capturing its highest commanders. The Maliki government appears to have withdrawn all protection from the murderous gang and they may be in trouble.
BAGHDAD, Iraq - Mahdi Army fighters said Thursday they were under siege in their Sadr City stronghold as U.S. and Iraqi troops killed or seized key commanders in pinpoint nighttime raids. Two commanders of the Shiite militia said Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki has stopped protecting the group under pressure from Washington and threats from Sunni Muslim Arab governments.
The two commanders' account of a growing siege mentality inside the organization could represent a tactical and propaganda feint, but there was mounting evidence the militia was increasingly off balance and had ordered its gunmen to melt back into the population. To avoid capture, commanders report no longer using cell phones and fighters are removing their black uniforms and hiding their weapons during the day.
During much of his nearly eight months in office, al-Maliki has blocked or ordered an end to many U.S.-led operations against the Mahdi Army, which is run by radical Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, the prime minister's key political backer.
As recently as Oct. 31, al-Maliki, trying to capitalize on American voter discontent with the war and White House reluctance to open a public fight with the Iraqi leader just before the election, won U.S. agreement to lift military blockades on Sadr City and another Shiite enclave where an American soldier was abducted.
But al-Maliki reportedly had a change of heart in late November while going into a meeting in Jordan with President Bush. It has since been disclosed that the Iraqi leader's vision for a new security plan for Baghdad, to which Bush has committed 17,500 additional U.S. troops, was outlined in that meeting.
Al-Maliki is said by aides to have told Bush that he wanted the Iraqi army and police to be in the lead, but he would no longer interfere to prevent U.S. attempts to roll up the Mahdi Army.
This is very big news. Assuming this continues, the Mahdi Army could collapse under the pressure or at least cease being anything like effective. There appears to be much more happening here than just a surge in US troops, which really hasn't begun yet. The change in tactics and the change in policy of the Maliki government could well turn things around.
By James, Thursday, 18 January , 2007 @ 7:08 pm
>Is The Surge Already Working?
From The Associated Press no less.
Now you buy what the AP is selling?
I think the Mahdi Army is flying circles around everyone.
The Maliki government needs Sadr and his army.
By TC@LeatherPenguin, Thursday, 18 January , 2007 @ 7:37 pm
If this is true–and not a stopgap ploy by Maliki–then maybe Baghdad finally gets settled down. Even sitting here on Staten Island, I always grumbled “you kill those Mahdi boys, right off the bat; knock ‘em over like a steamroller” when some yutz would ask me “what would you do?” when Iraq was the question on the table.
By Gaius, Thursday, 18 January , 2007 @ 8:05 pm
Actually, my son just confirmed that there is some word that things are getting badly disrupted for the Mahdi Army.
And he REALLY likes the Task Force 16 news.
By Jack, Thursday, 18 January , 2007 @ 9:06 pm
I’ve heard some of that myself from my sources in country.
It would make absolute sense if they decided on an initial set of attacks against Sadr and his gang as a preliminary operation to a real surge. The reason would be obviously to disrupt, split and then overwhelm as the real surge arrives. By hitting now the Us and Iraqi forces have the element of surprise, don’t allow Sadr to prepare a defense, and can crack his logistical support chain. It would also be an excellent opportunity to track his support networks (smash a few and see where the slack gets taken up, by whom, and from where) and to track Intel vectors through his organization. I suspected immediately when those Iranians were taken not long ago that this was part of an operation to track Intel and supply support flow through the insurgent and militia networks.
However if this is the case then I expect Sadr to flee underground and seek help by establishing bases elsewhere if he can.
Tell your son good job but tell him also to prepare for eventual counter-operations, if nothing more than an attempt at a break-out. They already knew they were to be surrounded, and now that they are being attacked before they can prepare they will be desperate and that much more dangerous until completely liquidated. I suspect many have no intention of being taken before they can make an escape.