Even the Washington Post is noticing that something positive may well be happening as a result of US pressure on Iran. I think this is the first time I have seen the paper publicly state that Iran and its puppet Syria are behind most of the uproar in the region.
All this suggests that the U.S. measures, compounded by a U.N. sanctions resolution, may be having an effect on the mullahs. If so, the impact is sorely needed. During the past year Iran and its ally Syria have behaved as if they can defy the United States and United Nations with impunity. They have pressed a broad and violent offensive against Western interests across the region, from Baghdad to Beirut to the Gaza Strip, even as Iran has rejected Security Council orders to freeze its nuclear program.
It's too early to tell whether Iran will back off from that belligerent agenda: Last week its ally Hezbollah renewed its attempt to stage a coup against Lebanon's pro-Western government. But it's not too soon for the Bush administration to begin working on the next stage of its strategy. That's because the pushback tactics, while necessary to change the atmosphere of hubris in Tehran, aren't likely by themselves to achieve the administration's goals. The pressure needs to be carefully measured, since Iran, too, has the capacity to escalate, both in Iraq and elsewhere. While the threat of military action is useful, this president should not have to resort to that option.
The Post suggests keeping up or even escalating the pressure while also keeping a back door open for moderate diplomacy. I suspect that is exactly what the administration is doing right now. And it may well be bearing fruit already.
