Hard, Cold Fact
Peter Brown, the assistant director of the Quinnipiac Polling Institute, takes a look at the electoral chances of two dark horse candidates for the presidency, Al Gore and Newt Gingrich. Both men appear to be waiting in the wings for a possible run at the nomination, with ardent advocates among the party faithful.
Both men have virtually no chance whatsoever to actually win the actual election if they were to get the nomination.
Everyone and their grandmother, it seems, has decided to run for president in 2008. But conspicuous by their hesitation are Democrat Al Gore and Republican Newt Gingrich, who are holding back to see if they really do have a chance.
They should stop holding their breath. Their time in the limelight, and their opportunity for national office, has come and gone.
Simply put, neither man is very well thought of among the mass of voters who decide the November election. And, not to put too fine a point on it, Americans don't turn over the Oval Office to people they don't like.
Former Vice President Gore and former House Speaker Gingrich both have strong supporters among the core activists who carry great sway in their respective parties' nomination processes.
But the reality is that neither man has a serious chance to be elected president of the United States because they lack sufficient appeal outside those core activists.
And the idea that they can turn that view around is just not credible.
It is much easier for a politician to make a good impression on voters the first time than it is for someone who is very well known – as are both men — to convince people that their initial negative impression is wrong.
There have been repeated stories in the media of activists urging Gore to run, not quite as many talking about Gingrich. But the numbers that Quinnipiac has show an insurmountable obstacle for either man.
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The Thunder Run — February 12, 2007 @ 10:10 am
By TC@LeatherPenguin, February 12, 2007 @ 8:52 am
Gingrich wouldn’t have the proverbial snowball’s chance, but he would make any debates “Must See TV” whether he was standing behind a lectern or firing questions from the moderators’ table.