Cutting Through The Smoke
There is a concerted effort going on to tout how Republicans are abandoning the Bush administration over the war in Iraq. The stories from the pundits and the media-imposed conventional wisdom is that Republicans are bailing out in drives. Only thing it, they aren't. And even USA Today, no fan of Bush or the administration, is honest enough to admit it.
The Washington punditocracy has proclaimed far and wide that Republicans, disenchanted with the war in Iraq, are abandoning President Bush in droves, leaving him the lamest of lame ducks. However, the latest USA TODAY/Gallup Poll suggests Bush might not be as wounded as he appears — at least not among his party faithful.
The Feb. 9-11 poll puts Bush's job approval at 37%, but among people who identify themselves as Republican or leaning Republican, his approval rating is 76%.
Thus, despite bad news from Baghdad and carefully crafted hand-wringing by high-profile GOP war critics in Congress such as Sen. Chuck Hagel of Nebraska, three of four Republicans in the country are hanging in there with the president.
The poll also shows that rank-and-file Republicans have higher regard for the president than they do Republicans in Congress. They gave GOP lawmakers a 63% job-approval rating, 13 points below Bush's. And 72% of Republicans do not think Bush made a mistake sending U.S. troops to Iraq.
So if congressional Republicans figure the key to re-election in 2008 is taking a hard line against Bush on Iraq, they could be dead wrong. They might lure some independents, but they risk alienating their GOP base. To win, you need solid support from your base plus independents, not independents alone.
Conventional wisdom also says the presidential ambitions of Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., could be derailed by his strong support for the war. This poll, however, shows that his stance could be a plus among the base.
What does this high approval among Republicans mean for Bush? It means that as long as his party support remains that strong, he won't fall below 30% approval, a depth that would virtually extinguish his political power. The lowest Bush has fallen is 31%, still enough to make him a significant, although wounded, force in legislative battles with the Democratic-controlled Congress.
I have stated, repeatedly, that the Democrats did not win a mandate to lose a war in November. They may have won for a number of other reasons, but that isn't one of them. They are playing a dangerous game in trying to hamstring the troops and their commanders. And people like Chucky "Janus" Hagel are misreading the tea leaves really badly. (I've said before that I know one Nebraskan who will never vote again for Hagel for any office after his grandstanding attempt at shoemanship.)
I have stated, repeatedly, that the Democrats did not win a mandate to lose a war in November. They may have won for a number of other reasons, but that isn't one of them. They are playing a dangerous game in trying to hamstring the troops and their commanders. And people like Chucky "Janus" Hagel are misreading the tea leaves really badly. (I've said before that I know one Nebraskan who will never vote again for Hagel for any office after his grandstanding attempt at shoemanship.)
By cfaller96, Monday, 26 February , 2007 @ 12:53 pm
How exactly are Dems’ trying to hamstring the troops, Gaius? Many, many times I have requested you explain how ensuring our troops get the proper rest, training, and equipment “hamstrings” the troops, but you don’t elaborate. Why?
Also, didn’t you previously take exception to my assertion that the Iraq War is a Republican war, chosen by a Republican President, and faithfully enabled and supported by a Republican Congress? Didn’t you say something to the effect that “Dems voted for this too?” So, does bipartisanship only apply when we’re considering support of the war, Gaius?
From a political perspective, I’m fine with people insisting that Republicans are sticking with President Bush in support of the Iraq War. That just validates my own theory that if we want to get out of Iraq, we must first throw out more Republicans. But from a more common sense perspective, I would much prefer Republicans see the political writing on the wall and support withdrawal. Otherwise, Republicans are in for another bloodbath in ‘08.
Come on Republicans, save yourselves and save the country. Please.