Blue Crab Boulevard

Is He Going To Run?

The big question right now is whether Fred Thompson is actually going to enter the race for the Republican nomination. That question has a lot of already announced candidates from both parties very nervous, indeed. Robert Novak writes that Thompson is serious and may very well enter the race. Wild cards can make the game interesting.

Thompson was surprised by the reaction to his statement that he was "giving some thought" to running. In the first Gallup Poll that listed Thompson (conducted March 23-25), he scored 12 percent — amazing for someone out of public life for more than four years who has not campaigned. More important is his backing within the political community. Buyer's remorse is expressed by several House members who endorsed Romney, the former Massachusetts governor.

Thompson's popularity reflects weakness among announced Republicans, as reflected in the Gallup survey. McCain, no longer an insurgent but still not accepted by conservatives, is stuck at 20 to 25 percent. Former New York mayor Giuliani has dropped precipitously, from 44 to 31 percent, amid attacks on his ideology and personal life. Most startling, despite a well-financed, well-organized campaign, Romney has fallen to 3 percent.

Sophisticated social conservative activists tell me they cannot vote for Giuliani under any conditions and have no rapport with McCain or Romney. They do not view Sen. Sam Brownback, representing the social right, as a viable candidate. They are coming to see Thompson as the only conservative who can be nominated. Their appreciation of him stems not from his eight years as a U.S. senator from Tennessee but from his role as Manhattan district attorney on the TV series " Law and Order." The part was molded to Thompson's specifications as a tough prosecutor, lending him political star power.

Fred Thompson's voice alone is worth quite a few votes at the polls. Which sounds kind of silly, but is actually quite true. That and his name recognition already has some Democrats screeching and wailing about "equal access" to the media - primarily because of his Law and Order re-runs. Those are wildly popular and widely watched. The sheer volume of the early screeching shows just how nervous Thompson makes the folks chasing the Democratic party nomination. Even just saying he was considering the run has already sharply altered the poll standings of the announced Republican candidates. This could get very interesting, very soon.

Politics | Gaius Monday, 2 April , 2007

By jpg, Monday, 2 April , 2007 @ 7:50 am

“They are coming to see Thompson as the only conservative who can be nominated. Their appreciation of him stems not from his eight years as a U.S. senator from Tennessee but from his role as Manhattan district attorney on the TV series ‘Law and Order.’”

Man, that’s depressing. Supposedly sophisticated conservatives think Thompson’s a conservative because of a television role. Sometimes I really wish there was an exit door I could find to get off this planet.
By Gaius, Monday, 2 April , 2007 @ 7:56 am

Yeah, I second that.
By syn, Monday, 2 April , 2007 @ 9:16 am

But we are talking about the majority of Americans who rely upon Image to sway their vote and Thompson displays the very thing Giuliani displays…the Image of Strength.

Why do you think Giuliani is even considered a GOP candidate? It is because of his 9/11 Image. Those outside of NYC have to understand that the only reason Giuliani was successful at turning around NYC crime rate while beginning to establish a somewhat ‘free-market’ (NYC is still the 2nd highest taxed city) environment was because Liberal NYers were so fed up with the Big Apple’s rotting decay they they did not get in Rudy’s way. Don’t believe for one minute that on a national level Liberals will be so generous.

If Giuliani is elected the pressure from the Democrat Party, particularily the Left, will force him to satisify the ’swing voters’ appetite.

Centrist voters brought us Clinton, Schwarzenegger, Bush II who have all catered to satisfying the middle who are basically Liberals want low taxes. Let’s be honest, the moderate voter wants the security hawk who will also provide the entitlement goodies while at the same time will reduce their tax margin.

That said, the problem with attempting to draw in the ‘moderate’ or ’swing voter’ by nominating a Social Liberal/Fiscal Conservative is that Republicans end up with a Liberal then get all uptight when things don’t work they way they want.

I’ll give an example of the moderate platform, they are ‘pro-choice’ and have no problem with tax-funded abortion yet they want low taxes. Morality aside, a Giuliani-type candidate cannot satisify the Fiscal Conservative ‘moderate’ while at the same time provide for the Social Liberal ‘moderate’ demand for publically-funded abortion programs. In the end the Centrist politician will turn Liberal.
By skh.pcola, Monday, 2 April , 2007 @ 11:09 am

“Sometimes I really wish there was an exit door I could find to get off this planet.”

Suicide.

Putting the drama-queen hysteria aside, what makes you think that Thompson isn’t truly conservative? He’s more conservative than any other contender, so I have to suspect that you are grasping for any reason to denigrate his supporters.