Unheeded Warnings
Doug Schoen, who was one of Bill Clinton's advisers during the budget shutdown in the mid-1990s has a little bit of expertise in the field of presidential-congressional confrontations. And he is trying his very best to warn the current congressional leadership that they are heading for a train wreck.
But the GOP had misread the polls. Theoretical reductions in federal spending were one thing — of course the public supported that — but real cuts in spending on Medicare, education, and the environment were quite another. I advised the president in August 1995 that he couldn't lose by rejecting the GOP approach. But even he had a hard time believing that he would pay no political price for defying a newly elected Congress.
"Poll it again," Clinton said. But the numbers always came back the same. Americans said they would blame the Republicans if the government was shut down. Congress was being overly aggressive and confrontational. Standing firm would shore up Clinton's standing as a strong and principled leader. The key, though, was to project strength, not obstinacy. So Clinton made it clear that he was reasonable, repeatedly inviting Republicans to meet to resolve the impasse. Foolishly, they dismissed these overtures.
Today, history is repeating itself — with the parties reversed. This time a Republican president is offering talks to recalcitrant Democrats. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi can justify going to Syria to talk with President Bashar Assad; however, she cannot justify rebuffing an overture to talk to President Bush, as she and Senate majority leader Harry Reid appeared to do last week before hurriedly (and wisely) changing course.
Democrats should not be misled by polls showing that most Americans support the idea of cutting off funding for the war unless benchmarks of success are reached. Of course they do, in the abstract. But Bush's counterargument — that Democrats are prepared to undermine troops in the field — will be a powerful one, in part because it is far more concrete than Democrats' complex, poll-tested plan.
I have said all along that the Democrats were not given a mandate to lose a war. Regardless of what the poll numbers show on a theoretical question, Americans do not like to lose. Schoen is trying to get that point across to Reid and Pelosi. But it does not appear to be getting through. Reid had to backpedal - hard - on his "this war is lost" comment. And he still does not get it.
WASHINGTON - Defying a fresh veto threat, the Democratic-controlled Congress will pass legislation within days requiring the start of a troop withdrawal from Iraq by Oct. 1, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid said Monday.
I think the train is about to jump the tracks and both Reid and Pelosi will end up being reviled by Democrats for sending the party into the wilderness.
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Blue Crab Boulevard » Heading For Trouble — Friday, 11 May , 2007 @ 12:27 pm
By Quilly Mammoth, Monday, 23 April , 2007 @ 11:53 am
The difference is, of course, that the MSM was on Bill’s side.
By Tom Bowler, Monday, 23 April , 2007 @ 3:19 pm
“Poll it again,” Clinton said. But the numbers always came back the same. Americans said they would blame the Republicans if the government was shut down. Congress was being overly aggressive and confrontational. Standing firm would shore up Clinton’s standing as a strong and principled leader.
Isn’t it a hoot that Clinton found strength to stick to his principles only by taking a poll… several times?
By Gaius, Monday, 23 April , 2007 @ 3:30 pm
Excessive faith in polling is hurting the heck of the Dems, they really do not get it.