Waking Up

The Chicago Tribune appears to have finally woken up to the danger of a nuclear armed Iran. The question is, are they too late?

Iran appears to have solved most of its technological problems and is beginning to enrich uranium on a far larger scale than before. Tehran may well have passed the critical point, at which its scientists have mastered the technological feat of keeping thousands of delicate centrifuges spinning at terrific speeds. If so, that means all the assumptions about when Iran might be capable of enriching enough uranium to build a bomb would need to be recalculated. Tehran's ability to build a bomb — estimated by various intelligence officials to be five to 10 years off — is likely to be moved up.

Here's the math: International inspectors reportedly found that Iran has about 1,300 centrifuges running. If the Iranians can sustain that progress, their next milestone comes when they've got 3,000 running. At that point, nuclear experts said, Iran would be able to produce enough highly enriched uranium for a bomb within nine months or so.

"We believe they pretty much have the knowledge about how to enrich," International Atomic Energy Agency chief Mohamed ElBaradei told The New York Times. "From now on, it is simply a question of perfecting that knowledge. People will not like to hear it, but that's a fact."

No, we don't like to hear it. But the sooner that fact is acknowledged, the sooner the Security Council can drop the pretense that the slow ratcheting of sanctions will force the Iranians to freeze their enrichment efforts. Incremental pressure won't budge Iran. The only sanctions with even the faintest hope of stopping the Iranians are also the ones that would require the greatest international cooperation and cause the most economic pain worldwide.

They are urging real sanctions with real teeth. But is the West awake yet? More importantly, can our internal disarray be put aside long enough to actually accomplish anything to help secure an agreement on real sanctions? That is the real question. Or is it too late to stop the new Persian Empire without a horrendous butcher's bill? The anti-war elements in the West have made a real war more - not less - likely by blocking action early.