Interesting Times
Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute, takes a look at the Republicans struggling to gain the party nomination for president. And he concludes that the entry of Fred Thompson is very likely to shake things up mightily.
There are a variety of potential Republican scenarios. Almost all of them depend on how Thompson fares in the coming months because presidential politics, after all, is the ultimate zero-sum game.
If Thompson's support continues to grow, especially McCain and to a more limited degree former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, who trails in the national polls but leads in fund-raising and the early states of Iowa and New Hampshire, inevitably will see their presidential chances go down the tubes.
It is impressive that as a non-candidate, Thompson has so far elbowed his way past Romney in the national polls and pulled even with McCain. But, with his hat in the ring, Thompson will be judged by a different standard. We'll see if he is just the fresh-face flavor of the month as the other candidates hope, or the southern fried version of Ronald Reagan that his supporters believe.
Front-runner Giuliani, too, could find himself in an uncomfortable situation should Thompson catch further fire. History tells us that the former New York mayor's candidacy could be problematical should he face an opponent from the party's southern base.
We'll see if Thompson's candidacy is as attractive in the flesh as on paper, but his expected entrance early next month will bring a geographic and cultural dimension to the race that has not been in the mix until now. It is one that could work to his benefit.
The Sun Belt has dominated the Republican Party for the last half-century. In recent decades, religious conservatives have carried great weight in the process that has consistently nominated right-of-center candidates who reflected those views and values.
Neither Giuliani - whose views on abortion, gay rights, and gun control are at odds with the GOP mainstream — nor Romney, whose position on some of those same issues has changed to adhere to the party consensus, fit that political profile of recent Republican nominees.
He concludes that it will be an interesting summer. I've been saying that ever since rumors about Thompson began circulating. While it remains to be seen what will happen after Thompson formally enters the race, he is definitely going to shake some things up. And some people as well. I'm sure some candidates are thinking about that old Chinese curse: may you live in interesting times.
By syn, Monday, 18 June , 2007 @ 7:25 am
Problem with the Centrist position ie fiscally conservative while socially liberal is that liberal policies demand lots of government (taxation) money.
Gun control means the government will be required to fund more police and various other law enforcement designed to protect the tax payer.
Abortion means there will be less people to financially support the $1320 billion entitlement tab due.
As for gay marriage, the state gains no benefit off of the orgasm therefore it produces no financial means of support.
Rudy’s biggest problem is that by embracing these socially liberal policies he becomes a tool of the billionaire collectivist club. Mayor Mike and Gov Arnold have both shown what happens when they campaign out both sides of their mouths, a lot of nanny statist collectivism.
The only way for Rudy to win the nomination is by running on the platform of returning those social liberal policies back to the states for the people to decide while getting on with the federal governments prime duty of protecting and defending the nation.
By old_dawg, Monday, 18 June , 2007 @ 8:00 am
Here is the dream ticket:
Fred! for Prez
Gaius for VP
Ann Coulter for Press Secretary
By Gaius, Monday, 18 June , 2007 @ 8:59 am
Good lord. Why in the heck would I want that job?
By Chris, Monday, 18 June , 2007 @ 11:26 am
Presumably because you can shoot lawyers. Duh.