Immigration Troubles

The Washington Post is reporting that the immigration "reform" bill pending in the Senate appears to be in peril of failing. They cite top legislative aides in both parties as saying the bill will com up short of the 60 votes needed to invoke cloture.

The Senate yesterday turned back a series of amendments from both parties aimed at substantially altering controversial immigration legislation, but the bill shed supporters as it became mired in procedural problems that left backers concerned about its prospects.

The legislation faces a make-or-break vote this morning when senators will decide whether to cut off debate and move to a final vote tomorrow. If it does not get the 60 votes necessary, Majority Leader Harry M. Reid (D-Nev.) has said he will pull the bill, all but dashing hopes for any meaningful legislation this year.

Top legislative aides in both parties predicted today's vote would be very close but would fall short of keeping the proposal alive.

Sen. Jim DeMint (R-S.C.), a key opponent, crowed last night that "they tried to railroad this through today, but we derailed the train." Another opponent, Sen. Jeff Sessions (R-Ala.), said, "I would say to my colleagues: Let's end this thing."

Key Democrats who were on the fence also raised questions. Sen. Robert Menendez (D-N.J.) said the failure of his amendment to bolster family reunification visas "makes it more difficult to vote in favor" of ending debate. The reunification provision was voted down 55 to 40.

Last night's stall came after a day that had left the bill's proponents optimistic. The defeat of provisions intended to toughen the bill or soften its restrictions suggested that the core of the "grand bargain" was holding in the Senate's second attempt to pass an immigration bill supported by the White House.

One key amendment rejected yesterday was a Republican proposal to require all adult illegal immigrants to return to their countries temporarily to qualify for a special new visa.

The provision, an amendment offered by Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R-Tex.), was defeated, 53 to 45. But a similar amendment that would require only heads of households to return to home countries is expected to fare better if it comes to the floor, after the vote to shut off debate.

This thing is a mess. What's kind of disingenuous is that last statement "if it comes to the floor". The whole point of the convoluted rules Harry Reid put on this bill was to keep other amendments to come up other than the ones pre-approved in the agreement to bring this thing back up at all. Nothing will come to the floor if cloture is invoked. On to another bit of political peril. The Post is also reporting that John McCain appears to have destroyed his candidacy over the immigration bill. His campaign is in financial ruin because of it.

Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) is not wavering on immigration. This week, he continued to stand firm with President Bush in seeking a Senate compromise on the issue in the face of intense opposition from core activists in the Republican Party.

His advisers refer to such a stance as one of the signatures of his political career: principled stands on tough issues.

And even they concede that, this time, it's costing him dearly.

"From a political perspective, having a candidate that takes on all the tough issues is not always the most politically expedient thing to do," said David Roederer, the chairman of McCain's campaign in Iowa. Asked what he would like to see happen on immigration, Roederer laughed and said: "Wind the clock back and forget that this issue ever came up?"

That sentiment is common among many of McCain's most ardent supporters, who admire his guts but worry about the political toll the debate is taking on their candidate.

McCain already had an uphill battle among conservatives because of his campaign finance "reform". The immigration thing isn't helping him. The Mason-Dixon polls put him in fourth place with less than 10% support. And fundraising is in the toilet for him. He'll be the first "name" candidate to fold.