False Gods

Robert Samuelson devotes his column this week to debunking the Prius politics of many of the true believers. The Prius is described as a "hippie car" by Samuelson's son. The description is apt.

WASHINGTON — My younger son calls the Toyota Prius a "hippie car," and he has a point. Not that Prius drivers are "hippies." Toyota says that typical buyers are 54 and have incomes of $99,800; 81 percent are college graduates. But like hippies, they're making a loud lifestyle statement: We're saving the planet; what are you doing?

This helps explain why the Prius so outsells the rival Honda Civic Hybrid. Both have similar base prices, about $22,000, and fuel economy (Prius, 60 miles per gallon city/51 highway; Civic, 49 mpg city/51 highway). But Prius sales in the first half of 2007 totaled 94,503, nearly equal to all of 2006. Civic sales were only 17,141, up 7.4 percent from 2006. The Prius' advantage is its distinct design that pronounces its owners as environmentally virtuous. It's a fashion statement. Meanwhile, the Civic hybrid can't be distinguished from the polluting, gas-guzzling mob.

The Prius is, I think, a parable for the broader politics of global warming. Prius politics is mostly about showing off, not curbing greenhouse gas emissions. Politicians pander to "green" constituents who want to feel good about themselves. Grandiose goals are declared. But measures to achieve them are deferred — or don't exist…..

…..Just to hold greenhouse emissions steady requires massive gains in efficiency or shifts to non-fossil fuels. The McKinsey Global Institute predicts that, under present trends, worldwide energy use will rise 45 percent from 2003 to 2020. China accounts for a third of the increase, all developing countries for four-fifths. Even after assuming huge improvements in energy efficiency (better light bulbs, etc.), McKinsey still projects an increase of 13 percent in global energy demand.

Samuelson has some ideas as to what to do, I don't necessarily agree with all of them. But the most vociferous advocates of "doing something" generally are clueless as to the real economics involved. (The Prius is actually worse for the planet than a Hummer.) They believe the pious pronouncement of people like Al Gore, who is a poster boy for hypocrisy; preaching that people must change – so he doesn't have to. He'll keep right on gorging on energy while he forces others to bear all the costs. Samuelson's concluding sentence wraps the whole thing up:

Meanwhile, Prius politics is a delusional exercise in public relations that, while not helping the environment, might hurt the economy.

Precisely. But I would say 'definitely', not 'might'.