The System Unraveling
The South Carolina Republican party is moving its primary up in response to Florida's move to change its primary. Other states will now have to move their dates as a result. Iowa and New Hampshire have state laws in effect that require them to have primaries scheduled before other states (strictly speaking, Iowa uses a caucus, not a primary). The entire primary system is unraveling and forcing candidates into making some tough choices.
South Carolina's Republican Party will move its 2008 presidential primary forward to Jan. 19, sources said yesterday, a decision almost certain to spark a cascade of calendar changes that could push the start of voting to New Year's Day or even to before Christmas.
The move, set to be announced today, is likely to cause the New Hampshire primary and Iowa caucuses to be shifted at least to early January, and other states are actively angling to stake out spots earlier in the process. The maneuvering has injected a new note of uncertainty into what is already the earliest-starting presidential campaign in history, and top strategists for the candidates said it would force them to revise their carefully worked out plans……..
…….Under some scenarios, the decision could lead Iowa to hold its caucuses in mid-December, creating an unprecedented situation in which convention delegates are selected in the calendar year before a presidential election……
…….The calendar changes are infuriating senior strategists for presidential candidates in both parties, who say it is forcing them to plot a path to the nomination through quicksand. The uncertainty is holding up decisions about where to campaign and to devote resources.
"If you're facing a moving chessboard, it's pretty difficult to know where to make your first move," said Allan J. Lichtman, a history professor at American University. "Imagine playing chess if the board keeps changing."
Lichtman said earlier voting could create the longest-ever general election campaign if the two party nominees are largely decided by mid-January. That would leave almost 10 months for the candidates — and any third-party entrant — to battle for the presidency before Election Day on Nov. 4, 2008.
This is stupid. Both parties are being foolish here and the states that are playing around here are risking serious damage to the system. In an attempt to gain influence in the primary process, they risk losing all relevance to that process.
Other Links to this Post
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The Thunder Run — Thursday, 9 August , 2007 @ 9:04 am
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The Anchoress » Blog Archive » To keep you amused, in case I disappear again — Thursday, 9 August , 2007 @ 10:22 am
By FedUp, Thursday, 9 August , 2007 @ 7:00 am
Why not have the freekin election now and then we can all get back to our regularly scheduled programs!
I’m getting a headache from all the bs on both sides! There should be a law to limit when the primaries can be held… and campaigns while we’re compiling a wish list! Just another example of how our government is sliding downhill all in the name of power grabbing!
By Anthony Ragan, Thursday, 9 August , 2007 @ 7:42 am
The problem with the primaries schedule rises from states with late primaries often finding themselves irrelevant by the time their elections roll around. California’s a classic example: we have a huge number of delegates, but the June primary meant that our votes counted for little, as the races had essentially been decided by then. We were reduced to being little more than an ATM, used to fund campaigns elsewhere. So, we finally moved our primaries to February.
And that made a wholesale shift in dates inevitable, as other states wouldn’t want to be made irrelevant after we voted.
I think the solution is probably some sort of series of regional primaries that mixes small and large states in roughly equal (by delegate count) groups, so no states are left feeling irrelevant.
By Jess, Thursday, 9 August , 2007 @ 9:18 am
Good grief. Since Washington loves to legislate so much, why don’t they just pass a law that requires all states to have a primary on the same day and be done with all of this nonsense. They could give a hoot about states rights any other time, why bother now?
By FedUp, Thursday, 9 August , 2007 @ 9:27 am
Geez! It’s simple… have all the freekin primaries on the same night… case solved!