Oh, Bull
I remarked to my wife just yesterday while leafing through the latest catalog from Cheaper Than Dirt that ammunition prices had risen rather sharply in the past year. Lo and behold, today there is an Associated Press article up over at the Yahoo News site blaming the increased prices and shortages that are hitting police forces across the country on - wait for it - the war in Iraq. But the reporter who blames this on the war does so by ignoring things he actually reports in his own article.
Troops training for and fighting the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan are firing more than 1 billion bullets a year, contributing to ammunition shortages hitting police departments nationwide and preventing some officers from training with the weapons they carry on patrol.
An Associated Press review of dozens of police and sheriff's departments found that many are struggling with delays of as long as a year for both handgun and rifle ammunition. And the shortages are resulting in prices as much as double what departments were paying just a year ago.
"There were warehouses full of it. Now, that isn't the case," said Al Aden, police chief in Pierre, S.D.
Departments in all parts of the country reported delays or reductions in training and, in at least one case, a proposal to use paint-ball guns in firing drills as a way to conserve real ammo.
Forgoing proper, repetitive weapons training comes with a price on the streets, police say, in diminished accuracy, quickness on the draw and basic decision-making skills.
"You are not going to be as sharp or as good, especially if an emergency situation comes up," said Sgt. James MacGillis, range master for the Milwaukee police. "The better-trained officer is the one that is less likely to use force."
The pinch is blamed on a skyrocketing demand for ammunition that followed the start of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, driven by the training needs of a military at war, and, ironically, police departments increasing their own practice regimens following the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks. The increasingly voracious demand for copper and lead overseas, especially in China, has also been a factor.
That last "factor" is almost certainly the vast majority of the increase in price. Because, as the reporter even points out, almost all of the military ammunition comes out of a dedicated factory, the Lake City Army Ammunition Plant in Independence, Missouri. And military specification ammunition does not use the same propellant that civilian ammunition does (military ammo has to be "de-milled" before it can be sold to the public - the military-grade "gunpowder" (it isn't really gunpowder) has to be removed. The pressures are too high for civilian guns).
Is increased demand by the military a factor in all this? Sure. A minor one. The real driver here is the cost of the metal. Prices for every caliber of ammunition is up for every metallic cased cartridge that I saw, including calibers that are not in high demand by the military or police. (Not many police forces use .45 long Colt, but those prices are sky high. Which follows - they use a lot of metal.) But shotgun ammunition, which does not have a solid metal casing, is not up as much as popular handgun ammunition as far as I could tell.
That's my take on all this, I'm shooting (pun intended) an email over to Bob Owens for his take on this.
UPDATE: Well, that was quick. Bob isn't sure if it is the metal prices, but offers this anecdotal insight:
While I can only provide anecdotal evidence, my customers seem to be
shooting a lot more than they used to, and there seem to be more of them.
Trap and Skeet ranges are opening nearby and doing brisk business, as are
pistol ranges. These shooters buy ammunition not a box or two at a time,
but cases at a time. Five hundred rounds here, a thousand rounds there,
across the county, across the state, and across the country, combined with
law enforcement's new fad towards quasi-military patrol carbines to augment
their handguns and the appropriate training schedule for both, and it seems
you've got an increase in the domestic market probably driving the shortage,
and not a war.
I'd be interested in seeing a cost breakdown for ammunition manufacture before I ruled out the price of metal. While Bob makes the point that other industrial usage of metals dwarfs the ammunition demand, if metal price is the dominant cost of cartridge production, even a slight rise would have a direct impact.
Other Links to this Post
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Blue Crab Boulevard » Misfire — Monday, 20 August , 2007 @ 10:55 pm
By Mwalimu Daudi, Friday, 17 August , 2007 @ 11:21 pm
AP did not get the memo - the Iraq war is now kosher with Democrats.
Thus, higher ammunition prices are officially caused by global warming. The debate is over, Gaius, so don’t bother denying it.
By Cowgirl, Saturday, 18 August , 2007 @ 7:01 am
My guess is there are lots of armed citizens who realize that their survival and that of their families may soon depend on their ability to shoot accurately. In my family, everyone is always armed, and we visit the range frequently. And yes, we buy ammo in bulk.
So, I’d have to go along with the increased demand for ammo, together with the metal shortage caused by China’s high demand for same.