Stopping Chavez

Andres Oppenheimer, writing at the Miami Herald has some suggestions for stopping the power grab of (T)Hugo Chavez. Some of his suggestions might be of some use, some may be impractical but he has some very interesting statistics in his piece that indicate that Chavez may actually be overreaching. Some of his supporters are apparently unhappy with his latest effort to declare himself president for life.

• The Venezuelan opposition should not repeat its mistake of the 2005 congressional elections, when it boycotted the vote citing Chávez's curtailment of campaigning freedoms, believing that would delegitimize the election. Chávez simply ignored the opposition, went ahead with the vote and installed a totally partisan National Assembly.

Granted, the opposition will have to compete in an even less level playing field today: Chávez has more powers to use state resources, will control virtually all mass media — especially after his recent de facto takeover of the independent RCTV television network — and will use the army and public employees to get out the vote in the referendum.

But mounting a campaign against Chávez's proposal would not only help Venezuela's opposition stay alive, it would also provide it with a golden opportunity for a comeback.

Public opinion polls show that Chávez's escalating narcissism-Leninism is beginning to irk some of his own supporters.

''Chávez is overreaching with this president-for-life plan,'' says Michael Shifter, a Venezuela expert with the Inter-American Dialogue think tank in Washington. “This presents an opportunity to reach out to Chavistas who may be disillusioned.''

A new poll by the Venezuelan firm Hinterlaces says that 54 percent of Venezuelans disapprove of Chávez's proposal to change the constitution, while only 26 percent support it. Interestingly, 48 percent of respondents in the same poll described themselves as Chávez sympathizers, which suggests that many Chávez supporters are not happy with the indefinite reelection proposal.

There are several others, you can go over and read them for yourself. The one suggesting that the US slap a $2 per gallon tax on gasoline won't happen – that one is political suicide for any politician. And it really isn't clear how The Organization of American States is going to be able to really put pressure on Chavez. But the fact that there does appear to be trouble in (T)Hugo's workers paradise may actually mean there is some hope for an internal check on the budding dictator. The OAS and particularly the US should be encouraging that opposition.

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