A Nonexistent Consensus

This is a fascinating little revelation, isn't it? A widely cited study from 2004 performed by history professor Naomi Oreskes found a widespread consensus in published papers about global warming. The study has been updated, Using the exact same methodology and the exact same database by medical researcher Dr. Klaus-Martin Schulte. Guess what? No consensus - not even a simple majority of published scientists buy into the "consensus" about global warming. 

In 2004, history professor Naomi Oreskes performed a survey of research papers on climate change. Examining peer-reviewed papers published on the ISI Web of Science database from 1993 to 2003, she found a majority supported the "consensus view," defined as humans were having at least some effect on global climate change. Oreskes' work has been repeatedly cited, but as some of its data is now nearly 15 years old, its conclusions are becoming somewhat dated.

Medical researcher Dr. Klaus-Martin Schulte recently updated this research. Using the same database and search terms as Oreskes, he examined all papers published from 2004 to February 2007. The results have been submitted to the journal Energy and Environment, of which DailyTech has obtained a pre-publication copy. The figures are surprising.

Of 528 total papers on climate change, only 38 (7%) gave an explicit endorsement of the consensus. If one considers "implicit" endorsement (accepting the consensus without explicit statement), the figure rises to 45%. However, while only 32 papers (6%) reject the consensus outright, the largest category  (48%) are neutral papers, refusing to either accept or reject the hypothesis.  This is no "consensus."

The figures are important. There is still a very large block of scientists who are not AGW doomsayers. This study tends to strongly undermine the more strident rhetoric coming from the true believers. Because if they do not really have a consensus, they really have no credibility for driving their agenda forward.

I have documented how many of the hysterical "do something" projects that supposedly will mitigate human contributions to global warming are either worthless, fraudulent or actually will cause more damage to the planet. But those projects are still being relentlessly pushed by the true believers. Damn the orangutans, (Bio)fuel speed ahead.

Results like this study show that there is a lot more research needed before we follow Gore and his sycophants in their lemming-like rush over the cliff of economic - and ecological - ruin.

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  By sam, Thursday, 30 August , 2007 @ 1:40 pm

  Thanks for posting this. I am a card carrying (gas credit card) global warming “denyer” and enjoy seeing these articles.

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