Charles Krauthammer looks at recent events in the Middle East and sees a single hand behind them all: Iran. That's something a lot of people have been saying for quite some time, of course, myself among them. But he likens the quickening pace of incidents to the rumblings of a volcano before it erupts. He does not think it will be very long before it does. He starts off with the recent Israeli airstrike on something in Syria, but pulls all the other loose threads together as well.
Apart from the usual suspects — Syria, Iran, Libya and Russia — only two countries registered strong protests to the Israeli strike: Turkey and North Korea. Turkey we can understand. Its military may have permitted Israel an overflight corridor without ever having told the Islamist civilian government. But North Korea? What business is this of North Korea's? Unless it was a North Korean facility being hit.
Which raises alarms for many reasons. First, it would undermine the whole North Korean disarmament process. Pyongyang might be selling its stuff to other rogue states or perhaps just temporarily hiding it abroad while permitting ostentatious inspections back home.
Second, there are ominous implications for the Middle East. Syria has long had chemical weapons — on Monday, Jane's Defence Weekly reported on an accident that killed dozens of Syrians and Iranians loading a nerve-gas warhead onto a Syrian missile — but Israel will not tolerate a nuclear Syria.
Tensions are already extremely high because of Iran's headlong rush to go nuclear. In fending off sanctions and possible military action, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has chosen a radically aggressive campaign to assemble, deploy, flaunt and partially activate Iran's proxies in the Arab Middle East:
There are rumblings from all around Israel. Hezbollah, Syria, Hamas as well as direct Iranian involvement. All pretty well unchallenged by the West. I have pointed out that I believe that the weak and ineffectual response by Europe and the US to Iranian provocation is making war more likely, not less. The only hope is real and effective sanctions. Not that such things would stop Ahmadinejad. He is, quite frankly, insane. He has openly expressed his desire to bring about an apocalypse. Once he has a bomb, he will use it. The result will be a disaster for the Middle East and for the world.
UPDATE: Thanks to Tobin Harshaw at the New York Times Opinionator blog for linking this. Tobin, I rather hope I am overstating it, but I'm also rather afraid that I am not.
I don’t think sanctions will deter Iran. I’ve been arguing for airstrikes to decapitate Iran’s nuclear development facilities. Some of my visitor have suggested that if we’re going to go in, we need to go in all the way, with unlimited power, scorched earth and rubble.
Be that as it may, we can’t leave the Iranian threat in place.
I’m not sure if they’d work, either. Frankly, the West has waffled for so long that the window may have closed.
I’m sure that between Hilary, Nancy, Harry and Jack, they’ll be able to handle ANY situation that Iran can dream up. That’s a very scary thought!
Diplomacy and sanctions will not work. Iran wants to wipe Israel off the face of the earth and nothing is going to stop them from trying. We need to be prepared to act quickly. I just hope that when it happens, we have a leader with enough vision to act and not have a seance with congress.
Personal snark… since Nancy did such a wonderful job bringing the message to Syria, let’s send her to Iran!