The Next Rwanda
Time has run out for Zimbabwe. The western nations have ignored the disaster Robert Mugabe has brought down on that poor, benighted nation. Today the Guardian is reporting some remarkable admissions by the Zimbabwean government. The agriculture minister, Rugare Gumbo, has admitted that the "land reform" which took land from white farmers has been disastrous for his country. There is no bread, there is no food, there is no electricity, there is no money, there is no hope.
Zimbabwe's bakeries have shut and supermarkets have warned there will be no bread for the foreseeable future as the government admitted that wheat production had collapsed following the seizure of white-owned farms.
The agricultural ministry announcement that the wheat harvest is only about a third of what is required, and that imports are held up by lack of hard currency, came as a deadline passed today for the last white farmers to leave their land or face prosecution for trespass.
The maize harvest is expected to be equally dire and price controls to contain hyperinflation have emptied the stores of most other foodstuffs. The World Food Programme says at least 3 million people - one in four of the population - will need food aid in the coming months. It describes hunger in some parts of the country, which used to be a food exporter, as "acutely serious".
Last week, the government said it plans to import 100,000 tonnes of wheat but acknowledged that a shipment of 35,000 tonnes was held up in Mozambique because of a shortage of hard currency to pay for it.
The agriculture minister, Rugare Gumbo, has blamed the food shortages on black farmers who have taken over formerly white-owned land.
"I am painfully aware of the widespread theft of stock, farm produce, irrigation equipment and the general vandalism of infrastructure by our new farmers," he said.
"I am disappointed that our new farmers have proved to be failures since the start of the land reform programme in 2000. In spite of all the support government has been pouring into the agricultural sector, productivity and under-utilisation of land remain issues of concern."
The ministry of agriculture has also blamed electricity shortages for the wheat shortfall, saying that power cuts have affected irrigation and halved crop yields per acre.
The power shortages are likely to continue. Mozambique has reduced electricity supplies to Zimbabwe because of a $35m (£17.1m) unpaid bill. Shortages of coal and spares for power stations and mining equipment have also hit electricity production and power cuts are now a regular feature of daily life.
Only a few years ago, Zimbabwe was the breadbasket of southern Africa. It was the second largest exporter of tobacco in the world. No longer. There is nothing to sell because nothing is being grown. The land is being grabbed by government officials and military officers - not handed to black farmers. The government has passed a law requiring foreign firms - those few that are left - to "sell" 51% of their interests to government cronies. The funds to pay for the "purchases" are raised by taxing the companies themselves. The stage is now set for the next Rwanda. When the collapse comes it will be sudden and complete.
The west talks, the UN moans and expresses concern.
Zimbabwe dies.
World news | Gaius Monday, 1 October , 2007
By Quilly Mammoth, Monday, 1 October , 2007 @ 11:09 am
This is just a foreshadowing of what is to come for much of sub-Saharan Africa. Despite upbeat reports from the World Bank there is little success in Africa. Along the West coast and down to South Africa some mild improvement is being made. But by-and-large the next several decades will see a horrific death toll as infrastructure collapses and AIDS makes it’s grim way through.
Wracked by kleptocracies and ethnic strife even the relative bright lights could collapse in a moment. Even nations like Tanzania, which is almost all Bantu and thus less subject to ethnic strife, struggle to bring their economy and political system into line for future success.
Zimbabwe is just a lab for what is most likely to be the future of most of sub-Saharan Africa.
By Gaius, Monday, 1 October , 2007 @ 2:07 pm
Unfortunately it is looking like that may well be the case.