Rumors Confirmed
ABC News is reporting that the Israeli airstrike on a target inside Syria last month was, indeed, targeting some sort of nuclear facility. As I posted a little while ago regarding the nuclear rumors:
So, is it true? I have no idea. Neither, I suspect, do the reporters. What we do know is this: the Israeli government is not saying much of anything. In a country where leaking to the press is considered an art form - nothing. What is even more important: Syria, after a brief bit of whining, has shut up completely. They are silent about this whole incident. If they were innocent, they would be screaming from the rooftops. But, no, they are quiet.
Logically, the conclusion then is that something very, very important was hit by the Israelis. Syria does NOT want the world to hear about what exactly got pounded. So this could be the real deal. Maybe yes, maybe no. But it is - completely - plausible.
ABC is reporting that it is not just plausible. It is exactly what they hit.
In early July the Israelis presented the United States with satellite imagery that they said showed a nuclear facility in Syria. They had additional evidence that they said showed that some of the technology was supplied by North Korea.
One U.S. official told ABC's Martha Raddatz the material was "jaw dropping" because it raised questions as to why U.S. intelligence had not previously picked up on the facility.
Officials said that the facility had likely been there for months if not years.
"Israel tends to be very thorough about its intelligence coverage, particularly when it takes a major military step, so they would not have acted without data from several sources," said ABC military consultant Tony Cordesman.
They go on to report that the Bush administration was extremely cautious after having been burned with Iraq intelligence. But Israel went ahead. Kevin Drum picked up something that also indicates that whatever they hit had to have been of extreme importance:
U.S. aerospace industry and retired military officials indicated today that [the Israelis used] a technology like the U.S.-developed "Suter" airborne network attack system….The technology allows users to invade communications networks, see what enemy sensors see and even take over as systems administrator so sensors can be manipulated into positions so that approaching aircraft can't be seen, they say.
….A Kuwaiti newspaper wrote that "Russian experts are studying why the two state-of-the art Russian-built radar systems in Syria did not detect the Israeli jets entering Syrian territory. Iran reportedly has asked the same question, since it is buying the same systems and might have paid for the Syrian acquisitions."
Obviously I'm just playing amateur sleuth here, but it doesn't seem like you'd tip your hand about the capabilities of technology like this in order to destroy a bunch of rocket launchers and North Korean Scuds. The mission had to be important enough to make it worth letting the Syrians (and the Iranians and the Russians) know that their air defenses had been compromised. They might figure out how to fix it next time, after all. So maybe there was some North Korean nuclear technology there after all.
There is simply no conceivable target so valuable that the Israelis (and the US) would allow such a system to be given away other than nukes. Once it is known that a system like that exists, it's useful life is limited to days or weeks. The Russians are extremely good at reverse engineering.
Syria is still not saying a word about the strike and has not asked the UN for any action. Israel is still very quiet. North Korea is suddenly willing to cut a deal to dismantle their nuclear program. All the indirect evidence points to only one conclusion.
War, World news | Gaius Saturday, 6 October , 2007
By NortonPete, Saturday, 6 October , 2007 @ 3:05 pm
I agree with your logic that you don’t show your capabilities to hit an arms cache, the Middle East is full of them. And the idea floated that it was a dry run against Iran is laughable, they went into Syria so far that the aircraft needed long range tanks. You can test air defenses a lot easier than flying across the country.
I saw a map of the area attacked I think at jpost. It was in eastern Syria somewhat near Iraq. My memory isn’t great but it seemed to be about the same area of Syria that was described as the destination of a caravan of trucks leaving Iraq just before the start of the last Iraq war. The theory was that Sadaam moved whatever WMD he had to Syria. I wonder if they found them by following a shipment from NK.
By Quilly Mammoth, Saturday, 6 October , 2007 @ 3:37 pm
The damaging affects of the “Bush Lied People Died” disinformation mantra on national and world security cannot be underestimated. It paralyzes the ability to react to developing situations.
By feeblemind, Saturday, 6 October , 2007 @ 5:19 pm
QM is quite right. I have been following this over at Arms Control Wonk. Though a lefty, he usually uses logic and evidence to support his position. But this? He says it was Scuds they took out. Nuclear site? BS. No way. Bushitler spin.
By NortonPete, Saturday, 6 October , 2007 @ 5:25 pm
No doubt inaction or reserved approval caused by the environment in this country delayed this attack. Perhaps there is other possibilities. Turkey was on board and there was a recent election that created a sensitive situation.
But the real convincing proof of the nature of this attack is the muted response from Syria and the condemnation by North Korea. Bad kids got caught, some NK were killed ( NK had to say something its their nature).
By syn, Saturday, 6 October , 2007 @ 5:34 pm
Yet just the other day I was beaten down for taking this war too seriously and for defending President, by a Republican; a devoted Reagan Republican.
Here is President Bush using former President Reagan’s neo-con movement to establish Reagan’s doctrine ‘evil totalitarian governments perpetuate war, Democracy brings peacefor all nations’ and ‘peace can only be achieved through superior power’ to defeat Islamic-fascism that Reagan himself had run from yet she railing against Bush because the war in Iraq wasn’t perfect; like what war has ever been waged perfectly.
Sometimes I wish Conservative Republicans would get over their Reagan worships, differnet itmes call for differnt leadership.
The only leader right now is one who will confront the enemy both here and abroad, in both taking the fight to the enemy and controlling the borders(would be nice if the religious folk stop calling Americans bigoted, racist nativists for demanding the border be secured)
By NortonPete, Saturday, 6 October , 2007 @ 6:28 pm
SYN
Amen.
By Gaius, Saturday, 6 October , 2007 @ 6:44 pm
I kind of suspect there is rather a lot going on behind the scenes right now. There have been some odd developments in the American political scene as well.