David Broder has an interesting column out today. The title will give you a bit of a pause: "Why Is This GOP Strategist Smiling?" The column is a profile of Tom Cole, the head of the Republican Congressional campaign. It is quite a read.
So how could he be reasonably satisfied with his party's prospects? The answer: The Democrats are also looking like dogs.
The approval score for their party in Congress has sunk to 38 percent — down 10 points since a similar poll taken just before the 2006 election that gave the Democrats their first congressional majority since 1994.
Congress as a whole rated only 29 percent approval, down 14 points from its start in January. The reason: People think it has been spinning its wheels. By 82 percent to 16 percent, those polled said it has accomplished little or nothing this year. Half blame Bush and the Republicans; a quarter, the Democrats; and a separate fifth, both parties.
Cole, who admits Republicans hurt themselves in 2006 with scandals and out-of-control spending, said the poll confirmed for him a comment he heard this week from a Republican colleague. Speaking of the Democrats, he said, "My God, they're dragging themselves down to our level."
It all adds up, Cole said, to a political environment reminiscent of 1992 — a tough year for entrenched incumbents of both parties who suddenly saw their margins shrink or disappear. "The American people are rising up in disgust," Cole said, "and incumbents will pay. It's not anti-Republican anymore. It's anti-Washington."
Which is something I have said before. (It's kind of nice to hear one of the senior strategists say the same thing.) The Democratic leadership in Congress has been busily pandering to their extremist fringe and it is likely to hurt them in 2008. I've been predicting that the Reid-Pelosi regime would come to be vilified by the rank and file in the near future. If Cole's optimism is correct, that future may be just over a year away. Cole is predicting a very bad year for incumbents – he is not painting a rosy picture for Republicans by any means. But the efforts of the media to write off the Republicans and to hold a coronation for Hillary this early should be viewed with suspicion.
After all, Tom Cole is smiling.




One problem with the poll that Broder cites – it’s bogus. It heavily oversamples Democrats.
In other words, the news is even worse for Democrats than it looks.