Six Percent

Not being from Massachusetts, this hasn't even been on my radar. But a special election in that state to fill a House seat is worthy of some attention. Because a very, very high name recognition Democrat with massive national party support in the bluest state in America managed to beat a complete unknown Republican.

By six percent.

MA-5 has been called, and it’s looking like a narrow 5-point Tsongas win. That’s closer than all the public polls and it showed Ogonowski’s momentum was all upside the entire campaign.

This was always an uphill battle. MA-5 voted by 17 points for John Kerry in 2004. After 2006, I’m not sure there’s a district anywhere in America that Democratic that’s represented by a Republican.

But there is a clear way forward for the Republican Party out of tonight. It’s one that we didn’t have last night. Or last month. Or a year ago.

It’s simple: the change message works. America is anti-Washington, anti-Congress, and anti-corruption. When that’s where Republicans are, they win. Jim Ogonowski showed us that. Maybe not in an overwhelmingly Democratic district like MA-5. But what about in a +7 Democrat district? Or in purple seats?

Nor do we need the usual suspects to deliver this message. You don’t need to recruit a risk-averse State Senator who talks to his consultants and waits for “his time” to run. All you need is a plain-spoken veteran with an extraordinary life story. We need more citizen-candidates like Jim Ogonowski. We need them to pick off Democrats in blue and purple seats. We need them as primary challengers to corrupt incumbents. In “safe” Democrat-held districts, we need to run people who can get 45% of the vote, and then be in a position to finish the job in 2010. In 2006, the average second-time Democratic challenger who won received 43% of the vote their last time out.

As Patrick Ruffini points out, MyDD called the results "not good." No they aren't. The Influence Peddler points out what the challenger ran on:

Why is this so significant? Because Ogonowski ran a race against Congress, against illegal immigration, and against corruption. According to Democrats in Washington, he should have been defeated badly. After all, Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid argue that Congress' low ratings are due to dissatisfaction with President Bush's war, and the American people are with them on the issues. Pelosi and Reid say that when people come out to vote, they'll vote with the Democrats — whom they allegedly agree with on the issues.

This is a very big deal. The conventional wisdom - as reported by the firmly-in-the-pocket MSM - is that Republicans are doomed in 2008. This result says otherwise. If the CW was correct, Niki Tsongas should have walked to this victory. Bill Clinton, Ted Kennedy and other national figures campaigned for her. This should have been a walk over an unknown, under-funded candidate from a putatively loathed party. Whoops.

Six points in the bluest state in the union is a defeat for the Democrats - if the opposition stays focused. Time to kick it up, folks.

Air America: We Just Make It up As We Go Along

Air America radio host Jon Elliot has apologized for his irresponsible speculative comments on the injury of fellow host Randi Rhodes.

Gaulin confirmed that Rhodes was injured after she was floored by someone _ or something _ as she strolled the streets of Manhattan's Murray Hill district around 8 p.m., but wasn't sure herself what sent her tumbling to the pavement.

"She hit her head on the street and was disoriented," Gaulin said. "She's not sure what happened. She didn't see anything." He added that she never reported the incident to police.

Air America released a statement saying that "the reports of a presumed hate crime are unfounded." Elliott followed that up with a retraction.

"I shouldn't have speculated based on hearsay that Randi Rhodes had been mugged and that it may have been an attack from a right wing hate machine. I apologize for jumping to conclusions based on an emotional reaction," he said in a written statement.

The Newsday story is hinting here that Rhodes may have been felled by "someone." So they try to keep the meme alive - in the spirit of truthiness, one presumes. The story will probably continue to morph. By the time it is finished, it will be an attack by a rightwing, mutant bigfoot wearing plaid golf pants held up by a pair of Dick Cheney suspenders.

None of which excuses Air America for making stories up out of the whole cloth.

Jeopardizing The Future

Bronwen Maddox of the Times of London is fairly well appalled at the actions of the Nancy Pelosi led effort to pass the Armenian genocide bill. She points out the absurdity of condemning a 92 year-old event - regardless of what it really was - only to risk jeopardizing current and future events.

Why take up an historic cause with such passion? And why now, when the most precarious planks of US foreign policy rest on already fraying relations with Turkey? It is not just the Bush Administration that has asked Nancy Pelosi, the Democratic Speaker of the House of Representatives, to desist. Eight former secretaries of state, of all political hues, have signed a petition calling for the same.

The House’s move reflects the power of the Armenian lobby, which has cherished this cause above anything more modern. It found a moment when Congress was receptive; Democratic leaders have been looking for ways to attack the values and tactics of the Administration’s foreign policy. But this is a bad way to do it.

Of course, Turkey might just mark down Congress’s gestures as an example of the contradictions thrown up by the separation of powers in US government. It could say that alleged actions by the Ottoman empire, a decade before the founding of the modern republic of Turkey, are none of its concern. But it won’t. The pity is that this frivolous move could have serious consequences: for stability in Iraq, for US forces there, for Nato, and as the markets have noticed, for the price of oil.

This was never a subject on which Congress should have set to work. It has no business pronouncing on an historical debate on which there is still enormous controversy. The massacre occurred a year into the First World War when millions of Armenians, who had fled the expansion of Russia and its satellites, tried to set up an independent state in Anatolia. The Armenian lobby says that Turks killed 1.5 million of them; Turkey denies that the number was that high, and says that many Turks died too. Documents supposed to record the atrocities have been disputed as forgeries.

She says that this a matter better left to historians and has no place in modern politics.

Put aside the theory that this is a cold, calculated move to kneecap American troops. Let's look at it on the merits. There is a lot of very high-minded rhetoric supporting this resolution. The arguments range from the, "Well, Hitler cited the Armenian genocide as an inspiration for his final solution for the Jews," to the, "we must denounce this to send a message to others contemplating the same thing." But those arguments ignore that the message - whatever it is - is being sent 92 years after the fact. So the real message being sent is that people planning genocide are pretty much good to go and their descendants will pay any political price. Said price being finger-wagging and self-congratulatory tut-tutting.

Bah. This is a cynical line of reasoning. The United States Congress is completely ineffective at addressing real time genocides, atrocities and general thuggery going on right now in the world. But they are wasting their time condemning something that happened almost a century ago. Who in their right mind believes this is the moral high ground? Who really believes this vote will signal the government of Sudan to curb the Janjaweed? Who believes it will curb Robert Mugabe's destruction of an entire nation? Who believes it will save one, single Burmese monk's head from being cracked under the iron fist of the junta that rules Burma?

Who is that smugly self-important?

The Pelosi led US House of Representatives, apparently. They wonder why they poll so badly. I don't.

She says that this a matter better left to historians and has no place in modern politics.

Put aside the theory that this is a cold, calculated move to kneecap American troops. Let's look at it on the merits. There is a lot of very high-minded rhetoric supporting this resolution. The arguments range from the, "Well, Hitler cited the Armenian genocide as an inspiration for his final solution for the Jews," to the, "we must denounce this to send a message to others contemplating the same thing." But those arguments ignore that the message - whatever it is - is being sent 92 years after the fact. So the real message being sent is that people planning genocide are pretty much good to go and their descendants will pay any political price. Said price being finger-wagging and self-congratulatory tut-tutting.

Bah. This is a cynical line of reasoning. The United States Congress is completely ineffective at addressing real time genocides, atrocities and general thuggery going on right now in the world. But they are wasting their time condemning something that happened almost a century ago. Who in their right mind believes this is the moral high ground? Who really believes this vote will signal the government of Sudan to curb the Janjaweed? Who believes it will curb Robert Mugabe's destruction of an entire nation? Who believes it will save one, single Burmese monk's head from being cracked under the iron fist of the junta that rules Burma?

Who is that smugly self-important?

The Pelosi led US House of Representatives, apparently. They wonder why they poll so badly. I don't.

Carville’s Crystal Ball

James Carville has announced that he knows who the Republican nominee for president will be. Giuliani? Nope. Romney? Not a chance. Thompson? No, not him, either. Carville says it will be………Jeb Bush!

Democratic strategist and CNN analyst James Carville tossed out a provocative idea during a panel discussion on politics Tuesday.

At CNN's America Votes 2008 Breakfast, the chief architect of Bill Clinton's successful 1992 presidential run predicted that former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush will be the Republican nominee in 2008. Jeb is a younger brother of President Bush.

Carville bolstered his prediction, highlighting Jeb Bush's career: He was a successful governor of a large state, he enjoys the support of social conservatives, he speaks Spanish, and "he's somebody the party could rally around," Carville said.

"There is nobody in this field who can rally the Republican Party; he's the only person in America that can do it," he added.

But fellow CNN analyst and former Oklahoma GOP Congressman J.C. Watts disagreed with Carville, saying, "The conventional wisdom caucus, the establishment of the Party, pardon my English, but they ain't going to allow that to happen."

Now we here at Blue Crab Boulevard have a little confession to make. One of our secret front operations, Madame Zelda's Political Arcane Supply Emporium and E-Z Check Cashing, Inc. shipped a special political crystal ball to Carville for the 2008 election cycle. We admit that the ball was not actually crystal and may have been a factory second. Or maybe even dangerously defective. One from the same lot was used to see who the Democratic nominee would be. It's horrifying.

UPDATE: John Hawkins: "Of course, Jeb Bush is going to be the nominee. He's going show up in New Hampshire, riding a unicorn with legions of gnomes and pixies tossing magical happy dust everywhere, and he's going to win with 96% of the vote."

James Joyner: "Given that it was a breakfast meeting, one would presume Carville was sober when he made these comments. While I respect his skills as a political analyst, though, this strikes me as more than a little farfetched."

More Inconvenient Truth About Wind Power

Not long after I started this blog, I pointed out a few of the realities about wind power. I've linked since then to a number of articles pointing out those and other problems in the MSM. Today a guy who has been writing about wind power points out another few problems with wind power. Household systems, he says, do not work. Size matters.

Wind energy carries the promise of tapping into a free, seemingly endless supply of energy. But those thinking to capture the breeze in their backyard with a personal windmill might be surprised how much the wind actually costs.

"Small wind doesn't make economic sense," says Paul Gipe, who has written several books and commentaries on wind energy.

The only people who should consider small wind systems (less than 100 kilowatts) are those who have to because they aren't connected to the power company, Gipe said. These "off-grid" consumers made up 90 percent of small wind turbine sales last year in the United States.

Gipe said it's fine if someone on-grid wants to help save the planet by buying a "dinky windmill" for home use, but they should know that it very likely won't last long enough to pay for itself in lowered energy bills.

And they should know to never put one on their roof.

A typical American home uses about 10,000 kilowatt-hours of energy per year. Depending on the average wind speed, a 10 kilowatt turbine with a 20-foot rotor diameter could supply most of the electricity for a house. Such a system will likely cost around $40,000.

According to the American Wind Energy Association (AWEA), a person who is living in a windy area (about 10 mph average wind speed or better)—and is eligible for certain government rebates or tax credits—could expect a payback time of 15 years on their small wind system.

That is on top of the issues I raised, of course. Those still apply. But a lot of the advocates for wind cheerfully talk about home systems as if they really were a viable thing if only more people would install them. Gipe begs to differ. (The AWEA obviously disagrees with him, since it's their mission to promote these things.) And putting them on your house? Really, really bad idea. It can damage your house structurally and wind is very turbulent around a house - therefore basically useless for energy production. The thing is, Gipe is pro-wind power, so his words should carry some weight even with advocates.

The Disastrous Foreign Policy Of The US Congress

As Jim Hoft points out, the new motto of the Pelosi-Reid led Congress should be: "We're not just unpopular here at home." They have managed to infuriate three allies or countries we need to have good working relations with in three weeks. First Iraq, then Turkey and now China.

And now…
In less than 3 weeks the US Congress has caused protests in Iraq, Turkey and now official protests by the government in China.
Good going, guys!

China has refused to attend the meetings to try to reign Iran's nuclear ambitions that were supposed to start today. Because Congress voted a medal for the Dalai Lama. There is a reason why the Constitution does not give a mandate for foreign policy to the Congress. Their conduct in the past few weeks shows the wisdom of that.

When is the left going to denounce the Congress for ruining America's image abroad? Man, those crickets are loud. So far Nancy Pelosi has gotten friendly with enemies while treating friends, allies or working partners with contempt. Good going, guys!

Cracks In The Facade

Well, this is interesting. The Hill reports that five House Democrats are recommending that Nancy Pelosi not allow the Armenian Genocide bill to come to a floor vote.

Democrats are split on the value of bringing a controversial Armenian genocide resolution to a floor vote.

Five House Democrats plan to hold a news conference Wednesday to urge their leadership not to bring the resolution to the floor, although the measure passed the House Foreign Affairs Committee last week with strong Democratic support.

Reps. Alcee Hastings of Florida, John Murtha of Pennsylvania, Robert Wexler of Florida and Steve Cohen and John Tanner, both of Tennessee, will participate in the news conference. They plan to urge House leadership to “reconsider its decision” to bring the Armenian genocide resolution to the floor.

They just told Pelosi they don't have the votes to pass this. Let's see if she gets the hint.

Paranoia Strikes Deeper

I can't make this stuff up. Honest.

I'm late getting started today because I stayed up rather late and then at 6:00 this morning, a damned helicopter circled the apartment complex where I live for a half an hour — no exaggeration. I timed it. It was hovering right over my building, low and loud enough to wake me up — which is not easy. I've slept through earthquakes in my lifetime.

I didn't think much of it at first. I assumed it was just passing over and maybe there was low cloud cover or something but when it was still just as loud ten minutes later, I finally got up to check it out. It was circling the McCompound and while I watched it came in and hovered over the building right across from my deck. I didn't try to wave it down because I standing there naked in the dark. I watched until it started moving again, and I heard it circling for another 20 minutes. I have to admit, for a moment, I wondered whether I should get dressed in case they were coming for me. I took a tranq and went to back to bed instead but I tried to figure out what they could have doing when I finally woke up again………

……..So what was that chopper doing over my house, which is in the middle of nowhere by the way? Beats me, but it surely is strange how I keep having these weird sightings.

We here at Blue Crab Boulevard have it on good authority that the black helicopters are actually in short supply. Only the biggest lefties will get rides in those, Libby. The smaller fry will get a visit from a black Yugo, instead.

(I am literally sitting here shaking my head right now.)

Paranoia Strikes Deep

Paranoia strikes deep
Into your life it will creep
It starts when you're always afraid
You step out of line, the man come and take you away
(Stephen Stills, For What It's Worth)

Wow. Let's do the time warp again. Air America radio personality Randi Rhodes was apparently hurt in New York City while walking her dog. Irresponsible speculation by another Air America radio host, Jon Elliott, then set a number of folks on the left off into a paranoid conspiracy theory that had rightwing goons going after Ms. Rhodes. The full range of insanity is on display in several comment sections. One teensy little little fly in the ointment:

She tripped while walking her dog. That's it. No melodrama, no mugging, no Reichwing stormtroopers. She tripped and fell.

Air America radio host Randi Rhodes is temporarily off the air, but claims she was brutally attacked near her Manhattan apartment are bogus, her lawyer and a police source said today.

Fellow host Jon Elliott claimed on the liberal radio network that Rhodes had been mugged while walking her dog, Simon, on Sunday night. Elliot, who said Rhodes lost several teeth in the attack, waxed about a possible conspiracy.

"Is this an attempt by the right-wing, hate machine to silence one of our own?" he asked on the air, according to Talking Radio, a blog. "Are we threatening them? Are they afraid that we’re winning? Are they trying to silence intimidate us?"

A police source said Rhodes never filed a report and never claimed to be the victim of a mugging. Cops from Manhattan's 17th Precinct called her attorney, who told them Rhodes was not a victim of a crime, the source said.

Rhodes' lawyer told the Daily News she was injured in a fall while walking her dog. He said she's not sure what happened, and only knows that she fell down and is in a lot of pain. The lawyer said Rhodes expects to be back on the air Thursday. He stressed there is no indication she was targeted or that she was the victim of a "hate crime."

Surveying the posts up over at Memeorandum about this, many on the left cautioned about jumping to conclusions. Others hedged their bets by cautioning but then muttering darkly that they wouldn't be surprised if it was political.

Projecting much?

Cuban-Venezuelan Confederation?

If (T)Hugo Chavez's words are being quoted accurately, Cuba and Venezuela may be heading for some kind of formal confederation.

Venezuela's president, Hugo Chávez, has signed a string of agreements in Cuba with the country's temporary leader, Raul Castro, reaffirming the countries' burgeoning anti-US alliance.

The pair agreed on a series of trade-related deals in Havana yesterday, in areas ranging from oil production to tourism.

Venezuela and Cuba "can form a confederation of republics, two republics in one, two countries in one", Mr Chávez said.

Who would be the real one in control of such a confederation is the question. Chavez might get a surprise there.

Cult Status

Cal Thomas minces no words about what he thinks Al Gore's sycophants are: a cult. (Something a lot of people, myself included, have mentioned before.) But he then goes on with a rational question: How does a conservative turn that to an advantage?

The Church of Global Warming (CGW) is a cult. A cult has a number of definitions, among them this one from dictionary.com: "A religion or sect considered to be false, unorthodox, or extremist, with members often living outside of conventional society under the direction of a charismatic leader." Cults wish to control others. Global warming fundamentalists wish to do the same through the power of government.

CGW members would reject cult status — which all cult members do — and Al Gore has never been accused of displaying charisma. But the CGW confers charismatic status on him because he tells them what they want to hear: salvation is available through the reduction of one's carbon footprint. Gore regularly violates his own doctrines by flying on big polluting jets, leaving tracks the size of Bigfoot.

I'd only point out that the bigfoot reference is an understatement. Gore emits more carbon than just about any individual out there. More like Godzilla. Anyway, Tomas then argues a completely different approach:

If we would launch an energy independence program with the intensity of a Marshall Plan for Europe, or a man-on-the-moon project, to liberate ourselves from the petroleum despots by developing synthetic fuels and finding new energy sources closer to home — especially nuclear power — we could strike a blow against the Islamofascists more damaging than bombs and bullets.

None of that is new. I doubt Thomas realizes he is echoing Koz Kidz talking points, either, right down to the "Manhattan Project" reference. Longtime readers know I am strongly in favor of nuclear power and believe many of the same people who helped stall that industry in this country for decades are the same folks who are now wailing about carbon. Unfortunately, many of the true believers dwell in a Cloud Cuckoo Land where laws of physics and real engineering barriers are simply wished away by the righteous. Aging musicians for example.

So while Thomas is partly correct, there are good arguments for changing the energy mix, there are also real obstacles that the cultists will throw at any constructive solution. There is no substitute for their one, true way that they would accept.

Email Problem Resolved

Thanks to Anthony over at The Irish Spy for alerting me to an email problem. I've been on the phone to the hosting company and the issue appears to be resolved. If anyone tried to email me and got a "no such user" error, try again, it should be fixed now.

Now you know why I don't do software!

Squirrels In A Blanket

A hotel restaurant in Britain is taking the advice of Robin Page and Lord Redesdale and has put gray squirrel on the menu. Prepared in the style of Peking duck, the sautéed treat is served wrapped in a pancake.

A top restaurant is serving up free grey squirrel pancakes to hungry diners.

Peking duck-style squirrel wraps are being offered to diners at The Famous Wild Boar Hotel.

The restaurant at Crook, near Windermere, in Cumbria, is giving diners the chance to try the canapes free of charge.

The grey squirrels were caught in the hotel's 72-acre woodland grounds and have been prepared by head chef Marc Sanders.

Hotel general manager Andy Lemm said: "Although we do still have red squirrels, the greys are everywhere.

"Our diners seemed to enjoy the squirrel pancakes and I thought they tasted rather nice, a bit like rabbit."

Lord Redesdale's Red Squirrel Protection Partnership specialises in trapping and despatching greys to protect the reds.

The partnership has killed 4,521 greys since January, and Lord Redesdale said: "The problem is that when we catch and despatch greys, there is nothing we can do with them.

"We would like to be a supplier of grey squirrels. With an estimated five million greys in the country, there are enough of them to go round."

(4,521 in 10 months? I'd say they're losing ground.) On the other hand, if demand builds for Crepes Rodent, they may yet win the fight! Maybe they could start a string of fast food establishments! The Arboreal Chophouse! Squirrel Heaven! The Tree Rat Grill! This could be huge!

Loch Ness Monster Caught!

That's right, a real live monster was caught in Loch Ness over the past weekend, on a rod and reel. A salmon estimated to weigh about 100 pounds is not an everyday find.

A massive salmon thought to be the biggest caught in the UK will not enter the record books because its weight cannot be verified, officials said.

The angling community hoped the fish would break the UK's rod catch record, set 85 years by the daughter of a Scottish ghillie.

Witnesses to the weekend catch said the huge salmon, caught in the River Ness near Inverness, was 56 inches long and 50 inches around the girth.

The angling party which caught the male salmon released the fish back into the water after photographing and measuring it.

But they had no way of confirming its exact weight because the set of scales they had on the river bank could weigh up to only 30lb.

Ghillie Grant Sutherland, who witnessed the catch, told The Scotsman: "I have never come across a fish like that before.

"We couldn't weigh the salmon because we didn't have scales big enough.

"All I can say is that the measured length was 56 inches. It was the biggest fish I've ever seen - by a mile.

"The man who caught it was an experienced angler and his reaction was one of shock - it took about 45 minutes to land."

Because the fish was not weighed, it cannot be considered for the record. But judging from the picture they have, it sure is a big fish. If the ginormous salmon take to the air like the sturgeon already are, we'll suspect yet another Russian plot.

Bounce!

This guy has to be an honorable mention for the Darwin Awards. An Australian man living in a high-rise apartment building decided it would be fun to lay a plank from his window across to a neighboring apartment. He happened to live on the ninth floor of the building. Unfortunately, the man, wearing nothing but his underpants, lost his balance and fell about 100 feet. But don't worry - the underpants saved him.

The 35-year-old was attempting to build planks across to a neighbour's flat when he lost his footing and plummeted 30 metres (100 feet) to the ground, police said.

The man crashed through an iron and timber pergola which broke his fall.

"He was skylarking around, building planks across to his neighbour's place when it happened," police spokesperson Ros Weatherall said. "He was very lucky."

Residents at the apartment complex in the western Australian capital Perth said they heard a strange noise shortly after midnight.

One said he woke to find police tending to the scantily-clad man in the apartment's courtyard.

The man reportedly suffered only minor cuts and scrapes and may have a broken leg. That's it. Whatever brand of underwear he happened to be wearing now has bragging rights. But they probably won't - some idiot would want to try them out. (The report does not mention whether alcohol was involved or not.)