The Politico reports that Republicans are refusing to obey the media-delivered conventional wisdom and are planning a "fall offensive" to regain political momentum. The narrow margin of victory that Niki Tsongas managed in a special election in Massachusetts this week – only 6% in a very, very blue district – is an early demonstration.
But House Republicans came out punching this week after a slow start to the election cycle, filing a respectable quarterly financial report and vowing to make Democrats’ lives as miserable as possible.
A crucial aspect of their new offensive: Make Democrats the public face of Capitol Hill at a time when polls show the public is disgusted with Washington in general and Congress in particular.
The new spirit of resistance was on display Tuesday night when the National Republican Congressional Committee, the GOP’s House campaign arm, seized on a weaker-than-expected showing by Niki Tsongas (D), who won a special election for the Fifth District of Massachusetts, garnering 51 percent to her opponent’s 45 percent.
The heavily Democratic House seat was once held by her late husband. She will succeed former Rep. Marty Meehan, who resigned to become chancellor of the University of Massachusetts-Lowell.
In an overstatement that Democrats regarded as laughable, the NRCC blared in a Tuesday night e-mail to supporters: “THE DEMOCRATIC WAVE BREAKS.”
The e-mail went on to argue that “Democrats Won’t Get Two ‘2006’s in a Row,” and contended: “In what is clearly shaping up to be a change election, Democrats have reason to worry, as they are no longer seen as the solution to the problem in Washington — Democrats have become part of the problem in Washington.”
Brian Kennedy, communications director for House Minority Leader John A. Boehner (R-Ohio), said the GOP plans to portray its opponents as “the same old tax-and-spend Democratic Party people remember from the 1970s.”
At the same time, Kennedy said, his party is working to “re-establish the Republican brand” by using parliamentary maneuvers that require Democrats to take tough votes on problematic provisions that have been added to popular legislation.
I wouldn't characterize it as a wave having broken. But the Democrats have a real cause for concern. That special election should have been a walkover. It wasn't. The Republicans won't get enough candidates like Jim Ogonowski to run, however. So strengthening the brand itself is their best bet. As for the media declarations and early coronations, they also predicted Presidents Gore and Kerry. So much for their crystal balls.
Was not there a special election last year (Bilbray in CA-50) that was similar to this one? The GOP was defending an open seat (Duke Cunningham’s) against an aggressive Democrat challenger. The MSM, Deomcrats, and even some in the RNC had written off this seat as a gain for Democrats. Yet the GOP won by waging a smart, aggressive campaign.
But Republicans did not follow up that win with a change to more aggressive tactics, and let Democrats pound them for months without much response. The question is – can Republicans learn from this race?