Chuck Todd from NBC News has an interesting analysis of Tuesday's election results. Interesting and disturbing, at least for politicians. Because what he is seeing is not the conventional wisdom that is being touted by many newspapers and pundits. What he thinks happened was a very, very angry electorate voted not to give more power to the government.
Ask yourself, how is it that a conservative and religious electorate in Utah said no to state government leaders who wanted to start a private school voucher program, while more liberal, secular voters in New Jersey struck down a proposal to expand stem cell research?
Or how is it that a left-of-center, usually pro-government electorate in Oregon said no to a cigarette tax increase to pay for expanded health care?
All of this happened during Tuesday’s off-year elections.
In fact, across the board it appears when presented with a choice to give government the power to start or transform a program, voters said no.
Down to defeat
On the surface, voters in Utah are generally supportive of private or religious schooling, voters in New Jersey are open to more stem cell research, and voters in Oregon want expanded health care coverage. What the three initiatives have in common is that opponents of the measures played on voters' distrust of government getting more involved. The result? All three went down to defeat.General distrust of government is not a new phenomenon; it has been the fuel for electoral upheaval for decades. But it's important to note that there may be evidence of a much angrier and anxious electorate than either party is preparing for in 2008.
At our most recent briefing, one of the NBC/Wall Street Journal pollsters said “this is the most angry and unstable of an electorate as I’ve seen in my career.” And that’s from republican pollster Bill McInturff, who was around for 1992 and 1994, the last two times an angry electorate wreaked havoc in an election year.
What's also disturbing – or should be – is that off-year elections tend to attract relatively few voters and most of those are party faithful. So if conservative Utah and liberal states New Jersey and Oregon can't get programs approved that should have attracted the base to vote for them, there may be a bigger problem than either party is acknowledging.
I've been saying for quite some time now that Washington politicians have been setting up a near perfect throw the bums out scenario. Todd is apparently seeing exactly the same thing shaping up. When the voters are this mad at the politicians, surprising things happen. (I still also believe that the presidential candidates that also happen to be sitting members of Congress are going to have a real uphill fight – the voters are not in the mood to promote someone who is part of the problem.)
The school voucher issue in Utah (I live in Salt Lake City) is a special case that is different that in other states in several respects. The LDS majority overwhelmingly sends their children to public schools, so the main people interested in private school vouchers are those sending their children to private schools and parochial schools to escape the perceived LDS dominance of the public school system, and of course the rich folks sending their kids to prep schools. A second factor is that the public schools do a fairly good job of educating the children, test scores are generally above the national average, so there is not much pent up anger and frustration with a failing educational system, especially among inner-city minorities. Those two factors trumped the more conservative, anti-government view of the average Utahn.
The anti-voucher group, funded by the NEA, kept hammering on the (debatable) idea that vouchers would take money away from the public schools. Since expenditures per student in Utah are generally among the lowest in the nation – the funding argument probably resonated with many people with children in school.
I voted for vouchers for precisely the reason given above, a desire to dilute the power of the government in education.
Gaius, here is the latest Congressional approval ratings from RealClear Politics. Congress is trending down again to an average of 23.3% positive and 64.3% negative. This is with the failed SCHIP smear.
There were 12 major polls taken about a month before the 2006 elections. According to the numbers I got from RealClear Politics, the average Congressional approval rating during that span was 26.3% positive and 65.9% negative.
Those who argue that the current low ratings of Congress reflect public dissatisfaction with the GOP are skirting a fundamental problem: Ratings this low are radioactive, and eventually will rub off onto the ruling party. Blaming the minority is not likely to work in the future. In fact, given what is written in your post it may have already run its course.
I would be quite happy to see incumbents of both parties get dumped next year. However, the GOP can turn this to its advantage by pointing out that the current Congressional leadership is corrupt and incompetent. Republicans are no longer in power, and it would be an advantage to them to remind voters just who is really responsible for this current mess we are in.
Here is the latest Congressional approval ratings from RealClear Politics. Congress is trending down again to an average of 23.3% positive and 64.3% negative.
There were 12 polls taken about a month before the 2006 elections. According to the numbers I got from RealClear Politics, the Congressional approval rating during that span was 26.3% positive and 65.9% negative.
Those who argue that the current low ratings of Congress reflect public dissatisfaction with the GOP are skirting a fundamental problem: Ratings this low are radioactive, and eventually will rub off onto the ruling party. Blaming the minority is not likely to work in the future. In fact, it may have already run its course.
I would be quite happy to see incumbents of both parties get dumped next year. However, the GOP can turn this to its advantage by pointing out that the current Congressional leadership is corrupt and incompetent. Republicans are no longer in power, and it would be an advantage to them to remind voters just who is really responsible for this current mess we are in.
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America is premier in so many endeavors, but only in the private sector.
From manufacturing to purity of foods. From research and development in many spheres
to applied employee policies in corporations. Almost all, excellent, world class and world leading. American politicians, not so much. It seems many of them either can’t hack it in the private sector, or they are wealthy, and just ran for office to effect some supposed dignity to their lives.