Blue Crab Boulevard

Betting On Losing

Even the New York Times is acknowledging that Democrats are having to tapdance with all their might to try to avoid the trap they set for themselves on Iraq. They bet heavily on an American defeat and now have to face the fact that the situation in Iraq is improving despite their efforts and pronouncements.

Advisers to Senators Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama say that the candidates have watched security conditions improve after the troop escalation in Iraq and concluded that it would be folly not to acknowledge those gains. At the same time, they are arguing that American casualties are still too high, that a quick withdrawal is the only way to end the war and that the so-called surge in additional troops has not paid off in political progress in Iraq.

But the changing situation suggests for the first time that the politics of the war could shift in the general election next year, particularly if the gains continue. While the Democratic candidates are continuing to assail the war — a popular position with many of the party’s primary voters — they run the risk that Republicans will use those critiques to attack the party’s nominee in the election as defeatist and lacking faith in the American military.

If security continues to improve, President Bush could become less of a drag on his party, too, and Republicans may have an easier time zeroing in on other issues, such as how the Democrats have proposed raising taxes in difficult economic times.

“The politics of Iraq are going to change dramatically in the general election, assuming Iraq continues to show some hopefulness,” said Michael E. O’Hanlon, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution who is a supporter of Mrs. Clinton’s and a proponent of the military buildup. “If Iraq looks at least partly salvageable, it will be important to explain as a candidate how you would salvage it — how you would get our troops out and not lose the war. The Democrats need to be very careful with what they say and not hem themselves in.”

Unfortunately, they may already be hemmed in. A lot of what they have already said that is already on record will end up coming back to bite them. A lot of people have been pointing this out all along, of course, myself included. Back in April, Daniel Henninger of the Opinion Journal wrote:

Carried aloft on the gassy fumes of politics, the congressional Democrats may be overshooting on Iraq. Six months from now, they may wish they had been more temperate. Helped finally by the right U.S. military strategy, the Iraq nightmare might be ebbing. Then what?

No such thought intrudes today on Democratic politics. Buoyed by President Bush's 30-something approval and with disaffection over the war at 60%, Senate Majority Leader Reid can promise to sign on to Russ Feingold's pull-the-plug bill; and House Speaker Pelosi, as if making foie gras, can cram an Iraq-withdrawal bill down the gullets of her chamber's membership. The polls are with Harry and Nancy. What can go wrong?

What could go wrong is that the U.S. military's "surge" could go right. The surge, led by Gen. David Petraeus and formally known as the Baghdad Security Plan, is a real strategy being executed by real people on the ground in Iraq. For the past several months, since President Bush announced the plan, the Democratic leadership has acted as if this effort were so irrelevant as to not exist. Why bother? The House leadership has its own "surge" up and running in Washington against the enemy in the White House.

That was pretty much spot on. The Democrats bet the farm on defeat. If it does not happen – or if the Democrat's Congressional tactics end up causing a funding crisis just when things are going well, they just might get one big surprise next year. Riding a tiger is fairly straightforward in theory. The big problem with riding a tiger happens when you try to get off.

Politics, War | Gaius November 24, 2007

By bill-tb, November 24, 2007 @ 5:03 pm

The March meet-up with Gen Petraeus is going to be fun. When you are all in against your own country betting on defeat to advance your political fortunes, you have a problem, whether you know it or not. I think it’s time we begin to question their patriotism.
By fletch, November 24, 2007 @ 7:35 pm

That’s what so interesting about the next 3 months…

Any improvement in Iraq “helps” Hillary vs Obama in the Dem Primaries- the whole “I was against it from the beginning…” position loses much of it’s power.

My (Current) US Presidential Election 2008 Odds:

Hillary 4-5 (Dem Primary: 3-5)
Rudy 5-1 (Repub Primary: 9-5)
Obama 5-1 (8-5)
Mitt 8-1 (3-1)
Huck 25-1 (10-1)
Fred 40-1 (20-1)
Edwards 80-1 (30-1)
Paul 150-1 (35-1)
(Field) 100-1

Hillary has “triangulated” nicely so far- and while the “Nutroots” may want absolute obedience… they will still vote for her.

Disclosure: As of today, I expect to vote for “Ron Paul” in the Ohio Repub Primary… and “Typical LP looney-tune (version 2.008)” in the general election.” )
By daveinboca, November 25, 2007 @ 4:31 am

Daniel Henninger has been an oracle on Iraq and many other issues that no one else in the MSM is brave enough to tackle. I agree with fletch that Hillary will be the chief beneficiary among the Democrats and I notice that McCain has been omitted from his Repub odds, which is true because of his stance on immigration, but he might benefit by his staunch support of GWB’s Iraq strategy—at least among primary voters.

Disclosure: As of today, I expect to vote for Fred Thompson in the Florida primary—though I recognize that FT is not going to last beyond Super Tuesday
By K T Cat, November 25, 2007 @ 8:53 am

I had a comment, but the one from bill-tb is so spot on that all I can say is “Amen!”
By martian, November 25, 2007 @ 1:06 pm

The Dems aren’t riding a tiger – they’re riding a jackass – a particularly stubborn one! Unfortunately, no matter how sure-footed jackasses tend to be, they are riding the little fellow along a cliff and the cliff is starting to crumble under the poor animal’s hooves. If the erosion underfoot continues (i.e. the Iraq situation continues to improve) it could be a long fall down a very rocky cliff!