The World Turned Upside Down
Legend has it that the band of Lord Cornwallis' army played that tune when they marched out to surrender to the Continental Army at Yorktown. That story may be only a myth. This one isn't. The latest polls in Iowa show Huckabee on top for the Republican field and Obama leading for the Democrats. If it holds, just like that the race changed. Completely.
(Huckabee story) Huckabee wins the support of 29 percent of Iowans who say they definitely or probably will attend the Republican Party's caucuses on Jan. 3. That's a gain of 17 percentage points since the last Iowa Poll was taken in early October, when Huckabee trailed both Romney and Fred Thompson.
Other poll findings indicate that the former Arkansas governor is making the most of a low-budget campaign by tapping into the support of Iowa's social conservatives.
Romney, who has invested more time and money campaigning in the state than any other GOP candidate, remains in the thick of the Iowa race with the backing of 24 percent of likely caucusgoers. But that's a drop of 5 points since October for the former Massachusetts governor.
(Obama story) Despite the movement, the race for 2008's opening nominating contest remains very competitive about a month before the Jan. 3 caucuses, just over half of likely caucusgoers who favor a candidate saying they could change their minds.
Obama, an Illinois senator, leads for the first time in the Register's poll as the choice of 28 percent of likely caucusgoers, up from 22 percent in October. Clinton, a New York senator, was the preferred candidate of 25 percent, down from 29 percent in the previous poll.
Former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards, who led in the Register's May poll, held steady with 23 percent, in third place, but part of the three-way battle.
If - and only if, of course - these hold all the assumptions, all the "destiny", all the "inevitability" are out the window.
The old Chinese curse applies. May you live in interesting times. (If that is any more true than the tune the band played when Cornwallis surrendered.)
Other Links to this Post
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Mike Huckabee Leads in Iowa « The Van Der Galiën Gazette — Sunday, 2 December , 2007 @ 4:28 am
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Stop The ACLU » Blog Archive » Frontrunners Get Passed Up in Latest Iowa Poll — Sunday, 2 December , 2007 @ 10:23 am
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PoliGazette » Mike Huckabee Leads in Iowa — Sunday, 2 December , 2007 @ 8:51 pm
By syn, Sunday, 2 December , 2007 @ 7:40 am
It’s a bad idea to underestimate the determination of the pro-life people who do the hard footwork needed to get a candidate elected. If anything Huckabee indicates that just because they’re pro-life doesn’t mean they aren’t also big government nanny statists. These days one can’t tell whether churches are preachin the word of Jesus or the word of Marx.
Further, as indicated by Romney, the country-club Republicans can get high and mightly about their political money but they don’t get up on Saturday mornings to walk door-to-door, or make phone calls, or stuff envelopes.
By McGehee, Sunday, 2 December , 2007 @ 12:52 pm
Admittedly, things may be different this time around because of the compressed delegate-selection season — but Iowa has traditionally been a one-shot victory that has rarely led to the nomination, let alone to the presidency. Jimmy Carter went all the way in 1976 and got the press’ attention focused on Iowa, but I’d hesitate to call anyone who wins there a front-runner based solely on that.