Reverse Coattail Effect?
The New York Times reports that many vulnerable Democrats in Congress are quite worried about the possibility of Hillary Clinton at the top of the ticket in 2008. There is real fear that a 'reverse coattail' effect might exist. And yes, contrary to the conventional wisdom meme, there really are Democrats who are very vulnerable in 2008.
MANHATTAN, Kan. — Nancy Boyda, a Democrat who ran for Congress in this district last year, owed her upset victory partly to the popularity of the Democratic woman at the top of the ticket: Kathleen Sebelius, who won the governor’s seat. Now, with a tough re-election race at hand in 2008, Ms. Boyda faces the prospect that her electoral fate could be tied to another woman: Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton.
Mrs. Clinton is a long way from winning the Democratic presidential nomination, and over the last few weeks has struggled to hang on to the air of inevitability that she has been cultivating all year. But the possibility that she will be the nominee is already generating concern among some Democrats in Republican-leaning states and Congressional districts, who fear that sharing the ticket with her could subject them to attack as too liberal and out of step with the values of their constituents.
And few incumbent Democrats face a greater challenge next year than Ms. Boyda, whose district delivered almost 60 percent of its votes to President Bush in 2004.
Ms. Boyda, 52, is a former Republican who represents the state capital, Topeka, and a surrounding expanse of prairie and pasture interspersed with conservative small towns, military posts and this college community, home to Kansas State University. It was by appealing to conservative Democrats and moderate Republicans that she was able to defeat Jim Ryun, a five-term congressman, by 51 percent to 47 percent last year.
Boyda is attempting to put as much distance as possible between herself and the Democratic party. Others may not be able to. The real problems are deeper than who is at the top of the ticket. Harry Reid telegraphed yesterday that he was determined to see defeat in Iraq at all costs - that might be an even bigger blow to Democrats in largely Republican areas. If he continues to force the party to the left, he may be abandoning those vulnerable politicians to their fate. A Clinton-led ticket might then be the final nail.
Interesting times.
By martian, Tuesday, 4 December , 2007 @ 8:55 am
In those areas where Democrats are vulnerable in 2008, the Republican Party would do well to field moderate, middle of the road candidates. These are the candidates that can take back the votes of those “conservative Democrats” and “moderate Republicans” that Ms. Boyda appealed to in her election. This would at least give the Republican Party a chance to win back some of those seats from the Democrats. If the Republican Party fields far right candidates in those areas, they will lose again.
By Quilly Mammoth, Tuesday, 4 December , 2007 @ 9:53 am
Ms. Boyda was one I identified shortly after the last election as requiring Big Things from a Democrat controlled Congress. The biggest reason that Ms. Boyda won was that she appealed to voters who felt that former Rep. Ryun was a pawn of Big Business. In the mid-west, and some other places, moderate Democrats won because Rahm Emanuel skillfully…and I think accurately…portrayed the Republican controlled Congress as being a nest of greedy porkers unconcerned about what the common folk wanted.
So now we _still_ have a nest of porkers unconcerned about what the common man wants. And if you look at the states passing laws like Oklahoma’s 1804 one of those issues is border security; the other is that the common man is _not_ responsive to “Tax the Rich”. Jacksonian America abhors taxes.
To some degree Martian is right in that many of the most strident positions of the far right do not resonate. A good candiadte has to have them, but her main focus needs to be Good Governance and Security.