Evo Morales, president of Bolivia and sycophant of Hugo Chavez, may be losing his grip on Bolivia. Protests, resistance and hunger strikes are going on in many areas and a political impasse appears to be at hand. Things aren't looking good for Chavez's vision of a socialist South America.
The tension between Morales and his opponents centers on his plan to write a new constitution, but that's only the latest quarrel in a much deeper, long-standing ideological dispute. Morales says a new constitution is needed to create more economic equity and social justice in South America's poorest nation, a place where the indigenous majority couldn't vote before 1952. His opponents fear he's using the constitution to satisfy authoritarian ambitions for a socialist state.
Facing the Dec. 14 deadline to approve a draft constitution, Morales's supporters in an elected constitutional assembly gathered in a military installation on Nov. 24 and passed a rough draft without any members of the opposition present. The document called for unlimited terms for the president and more federal authority over money now controlled by states. Street protests erupted in which three were killed and hundreds injured. The two sides have stopped talking to each other.
On Wednesday, Morales proposed an emergency referendum to allow voters to break the impasse by deciding whether he and the country's nine governors remain in office. Morales's supporters say they'll push ahead with a new constitution in the meantime, taking specific changes directly to voters for approval if necessary. The opposition backs the referendum — if the constitutional changes are put on hold for the moment.
So now everyone waits, feeling that something is bound to happen soon. Thousands of Morales's supporters marched peacefully through Cochabamba on Thursday, backing their leader. And here in the city of his opponents, they drank water and sucked on lollipops as the hunger strike entered its fifth day.
I've never really believed hunger strikes were particularly effective at accomplishing anything, but the Morales opponents appear to be genuine in their efforts. Unlike the Morales backing legislators who announced their hunger strike and were filmed by the BBC eating fried chicken. That must be the Cindy Sheehan hunger strike diet. (Even Morales supporters derided them pretty badly for that one.) Morales does seem to be in some real trouble right now. The passing of a "constitution" by a rump gathering of supporters is a pretty desperate move – nobody is going to see that as legitimate. Chavez's electoral defeat should give the Bolivian protesters heart, The Chavez movement may have hit its high water mark and may now be receding.
