Lowering Expectations
The Politico is reporting that orders have been given to members of camp Clinton that nobody is to predict a win in Iowa. While it is quite common for campaigns to try to lower expectations before an election, this seems like quite a bit different animal. The Politico surmises that the Clinton campaign is not at all sure it can win - or even place second - in Iowa.
Orders have come from the top of the campaign here that nobody is to predict that Hillary Clinton will win Iowa.
That may be part of the “expectations” game that all campaigns play.
Or it may be because the campaign no longer is really sure that Clinton will win.
In interviews with top Clinton staffers, who did not wish to be quoted directly, I was told that Clinton could survive a second-place finish in Iowa and that the state was not do-or-die for her.
Gordon Fischer, the former chair of the Iowa Democratic Party who is now backing Obama, says that attitude represents an “evolution.”
“The strong pitch made to me and others not that long ago was that we had to be for Hillary, because Hillary was going to be the inevitable winner,” Fischer told me. “They have come a long way if they now think Iowa is just survivable.”
Technically speaking, all the Democratic campaigns probably can survive a loss in Iowa on Jan. 3.
After all, the New Hampshire primary is only five days later. Why drop out before then?
But no campaign is underestimating the importance of Iowa.
It is really going to depend on how things break at the caucuses, I suspect. A disaster would be if Hillary placed third on the first round and could not reach the 15% threshold - that would be a real problem for the campaign. (I do not think that extremely likely, however.) But then, a lot of Hillary's attacks have been backfiring on her as they have been exposed for what they are. Since her new, warmer side has so far consisted of her proxies hurling verbal fireballs at the opposition, she could be in real trouble in Iowa. That could change the whole race.
By martian, Saturday, 22 December , 2007 @ 2:31 pm
I knew there was a reason I liked those Iowans! The only problem with this is that if Hillary loses, it’s likely the winner will be Obama. In my book, he is actually worse than Hillary (and I really don’t like Hillary). I really wouldn’t want to see that inexperienced liberal who’s slightly to the left of Karl Marx in the White House!