Obama Takes The Lead In Iowa
Mark Blumenthal over at Pollster.com has aggregated all of the recent polls from Iowa for Democrats and Republicans. With the usual caveats, it appears as if Obama has taken the lead, as has Huckabee. The margin for Obama is very narrow, the one for Huckabee appears to be somewhat bigger.
So what do we know? Among Republicans, Mike Huckabee has clearly seen a dramatic increase in support for the last month, and now leads nominally in eight of the last nine polls (the individual margins may not be statistically significant, but the mostly consistent direction tells us that that Huckabee's advantage is most likely real). Still Huckabee's support remains soft and the Republican ad war is turning negative. Things can still change a lot over the next two weeks.
For the Democrats, Obama has gained over the last month, but the latest round of surveys are neither consistent nor powerful enough to tell who would win if the Iowa Caucuses were held today. And obviously, with the race as close as it appears to be, changes over the next two weeks could also prove decisive.
If you look at the line for Clinton, it would appear that there has been a real erosion of support in recent weeks. There isn't a timescale on the graphs, but there appears to be a sharp knee that dates back several weeks and Clinton has been sliding ever since. Will it be enough to unseat Her Inevitableness? Too soon to tell. But we only have a short time to wait, don't we?
By Quilly Mammoth, December 22, 2007 @ 5:01 pm
To me the primaries feel like the last few rounds of selection for a sandlot pickup game. The remaining kids aren’t exactly what you would like to have on your team. Sooner or later you’ll have to pick one of ‘em; but meanwhile there is intense debate amongst the kids you already have on your team about whom shall be chosen.
Meanwhile the last kids left are mocking each other in the hopes that by tearing down another kid _their_ chances improve. Calls of “Jimmy eats boogers” and “Danny wears dirty underwear” ring out as each vies to win and not be the one walking home unpicked again.