Blue Crab Boulevard

Contemplating Hell At Christmas

This is not exactly cheerful holiday news, but I rather suspect this was released quite intentionally by the Israeli media to remind certain foreign governments that the price of hitting Israel with weapons of mass destruction would be very high, indeed.

WASHINGTON- All out nuclear war between Israel and Iran: a doomsday scenario that we all fear deeply. A new study compiled by the US Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), headed by former Pentagon analyst Anthony H. Cordesman, explored just such a nightmare scenario, noting that it could lead to the death of between 16- 28 million Iranian civilians, and 200-800 thousand Israelis.

This hypothetical, research-oriented study also explored other contingencies for unconventional warfare in our region, noting the tactics that various countries could potentially employ in such instances.

As pertains to nuclear warfare, the study found that an Israeli nuclear scrimmage with Iran would most likely last for about three weeks. Aside from the aforementioned direct casualties, the study could not determine how many additional long-term casualties would arise from fallout and radiation in the weeks and months following such an attack.

One essential requirement for nuclear confrontation in our region, according to the study, is allowing Iran’s nuclear program to develop, unhindered by a pre-emptive strike by either Israel or the United States. If US or Israeli preemption does not occur, the study found, Iran could very well have 30 nuclear warheads available for warfare between 2010-2020. Israel, by comparison, currently has 200 nuclear war heads with both air and sea launch capabilities, according to the study.

How high would the butcher's bill rise if Syria and Egypt were to try to attack as well? More than 20 million more casualties in those two countries. Anyone who thinks that a dying Israel will not take its enemies into death with them is, frankly, insane. No pressure from the UN will stop it; no threats from any other nation will deter it. Iran would cease to exist as anything more than a glowing glass parking lot. The Iranian people would pay for the aggression of their leaders.

War, World news | Gaius Monday, 24 December , 2007

By Maggie, Monday, 24 December , 2007 @ 2:20 pm

And, if you look at the map at the link provided, Iraq is squarely sandwiched between the two “Ground Zeroes” … putting our troops who would be deployed there, right in the middle of the lovely fallout from both sides … not to mention those survivors fleeing from both regions. Would make chaos look like high society …

It’s a lovely thought, eh?
By NortonPete, Monday, 24 December , 2007 @ 2:39 pm

This is not Christmas Eve fair, but I have said something for years and few have grasped this simply observation.
“The most dangerous weapon a society can have is one that its enemy doesn’t understand.” Not being able to comprehend the consequences of one’s actions makes that enemy very dangerous.
I think if we had dropped a nuclear device at Tora Bora that produced limited fallout (its all in the altitude it’s detonated at) we would be further ahead in educating the enemy of the seriousness of their actions.
But it is Christmas and my fire is crackling and my Wife, who has had a bad year health wise, is very happy with something Santa sent from BlueNile.com, so I will wish all on Earth Peace and Good Will.
By Maggie, Monday, 24 December , 2007 @ 2:44 pm

NortonPete (best wishes to your wife), martian, Gaius, and all who gather here: Merry Christmas!
By NortonPete, Monday, 24 December , 2007 @ 2:47 pm

Maggie
Same to you and yours.
By Gaius, Monday, 24 December , 2007 @ 3:24 pm

Yes, Merry Christmas to everyone. (I’ve got to get a better post up than this one to wish this on, though!)
By martian, Monday, 24 December , 2007 @ 3:40 pm

Thank you maggie, both for your good wishes and for remembering me

I wish you and, of course, Gaius, NortonPete, feeblemind and all the rest the very merriest Christmas and a safe, healthy, and prosperous New Year!
By Maggie, Monday, 24 December , 2007 @ 4:52 pm

Yes, Merry Christmas to everyone. (I’ve got to get a better post up than this one to wish this on, though!)

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Good job, Gaius … Now, back to gloom and doom on this thread …Heh!
By Kip Watson, Tuesday, 25 December , 2007 @ 7:15 am

The Israelis have become a bit unhinged since the great Ariel Sharon passed from the scene. Countering the bloodthirsty threats of the Iranians with bloodthirsty threats of their own serves no useful purpose. It’s just plain stupid.

And why do you include Syria and Egypt in such a confrontation? Unless it is to highlight the folly of Israels’ remarks? The probability of those two countries being involved in an exchange of WMDs with Israel is zero.