Dead Heat On The Political Merry-Go-Round
The Los Angeles Times reports that Obama has pulled even with Clinton in New Hampshire and that there is a three-way tie with those two and Edwards in Iowa. The Times, as well as the rest of the media, is now trying to figure out how much impact the Bhutto assassination is going to have on the rapidly approaching voting. They are speculating wildly, but nobody really knows the answer to that question yet - and probably won't until the votes are actually tallied, no matter how learned the pundits try to sound about it.
WASHINGTON — Barack Obama has wiped out Hillary Rodham Clinton's once-commanding lead in New Hampshire and the two remain virtually tied with John Edwards in Iowa, as more and more voters get off the fence and decide whom to support, a Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg Poll has found.
Obama drew backing from 32% of New Hampshire Democrats who intend to vote in the primary, compared with Clinton's 30% — a statistical dead heat. That's a dramatic shift from September, when a similar poll found him trailing 35% to 16% in the state that will hold its presidential primary Jan. 8.
In Iowa, which opens the 2008 presidential voting with its Jan. 3 caucuses, the poll found Sen. Obama of Illinois, Sen. Clinton of New York and former Sen. Edwards of North Carolina in a statistical three-way tie.
But other poll findings suggest Clinton might gain stature in both states if Democrats' concern about world affairs increases after Thursday's assassination of former Pakistani Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto. The poll shows that Democrats in Iowa and New Hampshire consider Clinton far better equipped than her rivals to safeguard national security — as do Democrats around the country.
Such a shift in focus away from domestic policy also could affect the Republican presidential contest and benefit Sen. John McCain of Arizona, whose campaign has rebounded in New Hampshire. He's second behind Mitt Romney, the former governor of Massachusetts.
The fact is that voters in both states might pay no attention to what just happened in Pakistan. The people who are going to show up at the caucuses and first primary are mainly highly partisan voters. So trying to read the tea leaves on this one is not so much divination as it is wild guessing. I'd also caution that the poll was taken in the days leading up to Christmas and may or may not be all that accurate because of that. Who knows? But Pollster.com has been aggregating all of the polls and there are real trends (which are always the most valuable information coming out of polling - not the individual snapshots). Clinton is sliding, Obama is gaining. Huckabee is really gaining. How much the outside world's events change all that nobody can say right now. The national polls are not even close for the Democrats right now, however. Clinton has a commanding lead while the Republicans have no clear frontrunner at the moment.
By Anthony (Los Angeles), Friday, 28 December , 2007 @ 10:45 am
The fact is that voters in both states might pay no attention to what just happened in Pakistan.
And that’s the best analysis of the so-called “Bhutto effect” I’ve yet seen. It’s just too remote for most voters to factor into their choices.