The Target
The Opinion Journal has an editorial today that should make a lot of people think hard about what is happening in Pakistan. They point out that al Qaeda has been failing in the West, losing in Iraq and having its proxy taliban in Afghanistan see loss after loss after loss. The fear is that al Qaeda is after the big score by hitting in Pakistan: a ready made nuclear arsenal.
"In Pakistan there are two fault lines. One is dictatorship versus democracy. And one is moderation versus extremism." Thus did Benazir Bhutto describe the politics of her country during an August visit to The Wall Street Journal's offices in New York. She was assassinated yesterday for standing courageously, perhaps fatalistically, on the right side of both lines.
We will learn more in coming days about the circumstances of Bhutto's death, apparently a combined shooting and suicide bombing at a political rally in Rawalpindi in which more than 20 others were also murdered. But there's little question the attack, which had every hallmark of an al Qaeda or Taliban operation, is an event with ramifications for the broader war on terror. With the jihadists losing in Iraq and having a hard time hitting the West, their strategy seems to be to make vulnerable Pakistan their principal target, and its nuclear arsenal their principal prize.
In this effort, murdering Bhutto was an essential step. Hers is the highest profile scalp the jihadists can claim since their assassination of Egypt's Anwar Sadat in 1981. She also uniquely combined broad public support with an anti-Islamist, pro-Western outlook and all the symbolism that came with being the most prominent female leader in the Muslim world. Her death throws into disarray the complex and fragile efforts to re-establish a functional, legitimate government following next month's parliamentary elections, which seemed set to hand her a third term as prime minister.
This is exactly the kind of uncertainty in which jihadists would thrive. No doubt, too, there are some in the Pakistani military who will want to use Bhutto's killing as an excuse to cancel the elections and reconsolidate their own diminished grip on power. In the immediate wake of the assassination, members of Bhutto's Pakistan Peoples Party have accused President Pervez Musharraf of being complicit in it. But whatever Mr. Musharraf's personal views of Bhutto–with whom he had an on-again, off-again political relationship–his own position has only been weakened by her death. It would be weakened beyond repair if he sought to capitalize on it by preventing the democratic process from taking its course.
That is exactly what I am worried about at this point. The thugs of al Qaeda could never win an election, as Bhutto pointed out, but they could disrupt things enough to seize power. With a nation as a base and with a nuclear missile capability, they would be able to wreak havoc on the planet. Even though they would cease to exist as a result of unleashing nuclear war, they would have already done the damage by doing so.
Frightening picture, isn't it?
War, World news | Gaius Friday, 28 December , 2007
By NortonPete, Friday, 28 December , 2007 @ 9:56 am
An unstable Pakistan is a frightening picture. India and the Kashmir area would be at risk for sure.
There is another story about Pakistan, it’s economy, which is expected to grow 7% this year. The stock market has risen 11 fold since 2001. The market’s fundamentals are still thought of as sound. The market was only off .3% on news of Bhutto’s assassination.
Pakistan’s bond ratings are four levels below investment grade and the credit-default swap rate is the highest of any of the 50 countries that are covered.
So people are making money, which won’t help al Qaeda, but I do see years of unrest and perhaps the possibility of a infiltration of a nuclear facility and possible theft of a bomb or material.
By Maggie, Friday, 28 December , 2007 @ 11:06 am
Am I alone in “pondering” if that little ass-monkey in Iran “might” have had a greasy little finger in this?
I mean, of late, I’ve been reading reports of Iran’s increased involvement in A-stan (since they are waning badly in Iraq) … and what better way to cause more trouble in that country than to stir and shake things up in bordering Paki, and cause major headaches for an already ailing Pres. Musaraf?
By martian, Friday, 28 December , 2007 @ 12:44 pm
Musharraf needs to prove publicly and incontrovertibly that this was the work of AQ. Then, he needs to point out that the reason behind Bhutto’s death is that SHE WAS A WOMAN - no more and no less. He needs to push strongly the fact that under a fundamentalist rule, which is what AQ and their Taliban lapdogs are pushing for, Bhutto’s involvement in politics would not have been possible nor would the involvement of ANY woman. She was killed for the sin of being a woman and daring to care about her country and her people and wanting to do something to better their lives. If he stays on that theme and can be seen to be visibly pursuing justice in this case, he can use this to consolidate support behind himself and it’s possible the assasination could end up being a stabilizing factor in the long run. Let’s hope he’s smart enough to do this.
By Maggie, Friday, 28 December , 2007 @ 12:46 pm
martian -
In other words, he needs to grow a set and pick a side … now!
By NortonPete, Friday, 28 December , 2007 @ 5:23 pm
Gaius, this confirms your take on the Pakistan situation:
Here is something from the timesofindia.indiatimes . com
” Though the situation in Pakistan is “still very fluid” and a close tab is being kept on it, Indian security agencies feel there is definitely a threat of a jehadi spill over from across the border as well as the “activation of terror sleeper cells spread across India”.
The person to watch across the border, of course, is General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani, who succeeded Pervez Musharraf as army chief recently. One view here is that the bells may have already begun to toll for Musharraf after the turn of events on Thursday, with the pressure mounting on the Pakistan Army to deliver in the fight against jihadi terrorism. “The person who wears the army chief’s uniform in Pakistan is the real lord and master behind the scenes. Though Kayani is new and loyal to Musharraf, he may just think of dumping his mentor if things spiral out of control further,” said a senior defence officer.
With the initial Indian assessment also being that the imprint of al-Qaida or its affiliates, aided by ‘rogue or other elements’ of ISI, is visible behind Benazir Bhutto’s death, the nightmarish scenario of extremists laying hands on enriched uranium or ‘dirty bombs’ also remains quite plausible despite protestations to the contrary by Musharraf.
“
By crosspatch, Friday, 28 December , 2007 @ 8:55 pm
I would guess that the time has come where Pakistan can no longer afford to keep the Taliban around and they have become more of a domestic liability than any asset they could be. The Taliban have, I believe, overreached and will now pay dearly. Al Qaida is probably toast first, though.