Opening Day Approaches
The Opinion Journal surveys the candidates as the Iowa caucuses approach. Less than one week out from the political opening day of the primary season and the Democrats are the ones with the biggest potential winners and losers in the Hawkeye state.
The first contest of the Presidential election season is finally upon us with Thursday's Iowa caucuses, and for our money it comes both too early and too late.
Iowa arrives too early this cycle in that it comes a full 10 months before the general election next November. We think the public was better served when the first primaries didn't begin until much later. In 1976, Ronald Reagan barely lost to President Ford in New Hampshire in February, but he was still able to make a contest of the nomination by winning the North Carolina primary in late March. That the Iowa home stretch is taking place this year when most families are preoccupied with the holidays is especially silly.
But Iowa comes late because the truncated nature of this primary season means the candidates have already been campaigning for more than a year. As Karl Rove wrote on these pages, both parties need to think about changing a nominating process that has turned into a two-year marathon yet could still yield nominees the public barely knows. There has to be a better way. Our own suggestion would be for primaries that began in the late spring and played out over three months, culminating in the nominating conventions close to Labor Day. Either that, or bring back the smoke-filled room.
This time we are nonetheless stuck with what we have, and at least Iowa will begin to cull the field. This year the state's caucuses seem especially important to the Democrats. Barack Obama and John Edwards need a victory to show they can challenge the Hillary Clinton juggernaut. Mr. Edwards has invested heavily in the state, and if his message of "two Americas" can't win amid the liberals who dominate Iowa's Democratic caucus-goers, it's not going to win anywhere.
With his recent rise in the polls, Mr. Obama has the new burden of higher expectations. Mrs. Clinton can afford to lose and fight on with her money and organization. As the upstart, Mr. Obama has to show he can put together enough of an organization to defeat her in Iowa and develop momentum to overtake Mrs. Clinton's lead in New Hampshire and beyond.
Go read the rest. Their take on Clinton is - to be kind - unkind. But that really isn't surprising given the almost frantic message try outs the Clinton campaign has been making lately. They've been all over the map trying to find one message that excites voters and have come off badly as a result. I still think that a third place finish in Iowa will cause sever problems for Clinton going forward. I don't know if it will be enough to completely derail her, but it will be a huge blow.
I do hope the parties get their collective acts together before the next election, though. This two year campaign is much too long. And the way the state parties have hashed up the schedules for primaries is not helping at all.
By FedUp, Saturday, 29 December , 2007 @ 12:00 pm
Izzn’t it over yet??? Reminds me of Groundhog Day…