Novak Autopsies Clinton Iowa Campaign
Robert Novak, who appears to be very confident that his prediction of a third place finish for Hillary Clinton is accurate, is also fairly certain he knows why Clinton got into trouble: Clintonian triangulation, too early on.
(Mark) Penn, a professional pollster who was political adviser to President Bill Clinton, is chief strategist for the Hillary Clinton campaign. He has embraced the triangulation — coming over as a third force somewhere between liberal and conservative poles — that characterized Bill Clinton's politics after 1994, based on advice from Dick Morris. To many Democratic operatives, Penn's triangulation prematurely introduced a general election strategy, when in fact the party nomination was still in doubt.
Health care is particularly sensitive for Sen. Clinton. Her failed 1993-94 plan is blamed inside Democratic ranks for the Republican takeover in the '94 elections and for freezing the entire health issue for a decade. While her current call for mandatory health care coverage might seem radical, it is criticized on the left as embracing "shared responsibility" with private health insurance firms (similar to plans by Republican Govs. Mitt Romney in Massachusetts and Arnold Schwarzenegger in California). That looks like triangulation.
It was even more obviously triangulation in September, when Clinton voted for a resolution declaring that the Iranian Revolutionary Guard is a terrorist organization. The other three Democratic senators seeking the presidential nomination — Obama, Joseph Biden and Christopher Dodd — all opposed the resolution on grounds it would give President Bush a pretext for invading Iran (though Obama was not present for the vote). Clinton, while attacking Bush's Iraq policy, did not want to seem soft on Iran's Holocaust-denying president vowing the destruction of Israel.
Penn's strategy from the start was predicated on the inevitability of Clinton's nomination so that the real concern was to position her to run against the Republicans by making clear she was no more a hard leftist than her husband had been. Iowa, with its passionately liberal caucus-goers not suited for triangulation, always was a problem for Clinton. Early polls there gave the lead to John Edwards, running on a class-warfare, populist platform.
Interesting take - and likely very close to being spot on. Clinton did appear to be trying to run nationally before she had the nomination in hand. When the campaign belated realized it might actually have to work to get that nomination, the campaign appeared to falter. It was as if they had no idea how to actually do that. One wonders if Penn is going to be out if Iowa and New Hampshire are both disasters for Clinton. Novak thinks Penn might be the scapegoat.
I would not bet against that.
By N, O'Brain, Thursday, 3 January , 2008 @ 7:37 pm
Like a wide receiver starting his run before he controls the ball.