Hillary Booed In New Hampshire

It officially just got worse for Hillary Clinton. In the biggest New Hampshire "100 Club" dinner in history, she was booed twice by fellow Democrats.

By comparison Hillary was twice booed. The first time was when she said she has always and will continue to work for "change for you. The audience, particularly from Obama supporters (they were waving Obama signs) let out a noise that sounded like a thousand people collectively groaning. The second time came a few minutes later when Clinton said: "The there are two big questions for voters in New Hampshire. One is: who will be ready to lead from day one? The second," and here Clinton was forced to pause as boos from the crowd mixed with cheers from her own supporters. "Is who can we nominate who will go the distance against the Republicans?”

This was Hillary trotting out negatives in a thinly veiled format - and the voters did not like it one bit. Let's rephrase that: The party loyalists did not like it. Not one bit. They told her so, emphatically.

Clinton may very well be in worse shape than even I thought at this point. She could very well implode completely if she gets hammered in New Hampshire.

Desperation?

Hillary Clinton, the candidate for youth? No, seriously, Hillary! is trying to make the case that she is the one and only candidate for the younger voters in America. A more jaded eye might say that she took a look at the numbers in Iowa and decided she better try to jump on that bandwagon before it left her behind.

Just seconds into her speech Friday morning, Clinton was declaring herself the candidate for America's youth — stealing a page from the new Democratic presidential front-runner, Barack Obama. The night before, the under-30 crowd came out in larger numbers than ever in Iowa caucuses normally dominated by the AARP-card set, delivering victory for the Illinois senator who promised to bring change to Washington.

That's why after her third-place finish in Iowa, Clinton got off her plane in New Hampshire and declared: "This is especially about all of the young people in New Hampshire who need a president who won't just call for change, or a president who won't just demand change, but a president who will produce change, just like I've been doing for 35 years."

"I'm running for president to reclaim the future — the future for all of us, of all ages, but particularly for young Americans," she said a few seconds later.

Obama has campaigned on his ability to change politics in America, and he's proven he can do it in at least one state. Fifty-seven percent of Iowa Democratic caucus-goers who were surveyed were participating for the first time, contributing to the record-breaking turnout. Obama got 41 percent of them, to 29 percent for Clinton.

Obama also showed he could appeal across racial lines in his bid to becomes the first black president, winning in one of the whitest states in the country.

One's mind boggles at the thought of Hillary Clinton as the candidate for youth. If anything, Obama's victory in Iowa, one of the "whitest states in the country," a term I personally find offensive, should say that Martin Luther King's dream of a colorblind society is actually happening. That Clinton is now trying a different "identity" politics is, I think, a mark of how bad her internal polling must look at the moment.

She's acting scared - and scared brings out desperate.

Side note: I think the Associated Press "analysis" piece says rather a lot about the bias and prejudice of Nedra Pickler, the author, in this instance than it does about the realities. Her off the cuff slighting of older voters in Iowa (the "AARP-card set") and the swipe at the racial makeup of Iowa - without acknowledging that one of the "whitest" states managed to overcome that reporter-perceived shortcoming is fairly telling.

Arctic Storm Beats Heck Out Of California

This is a bad one. The Arctic storm that hit California today has left one million people without power. Snowfall in the Sierra Nevada mountains is expected to top ten feet. As bad as that all is, there is also a family missing in the storm ravaged area - which makes it even worse. The brutal conditions are hampering efforts to try to find them.

Flights were grounded and highways closed in Northern California as gusts reached 80 mph during the second wave of an arctic storm that sent trees crashing onto houses, cars and roads. Forecasters expected the storm to dump as much as 10 feet of snow in the Sierra Nevada by Sunday.

The heavy snow was slowing search efforts for a family believed to be missing in the mountains, authorities said.

Highways from Sacramento to San Francisco were closed because of debris or toppled big rigs blocking lanes, and local roads were flooded. Interstate 80 was closed in the Sierra, the main link between Northern California and Nevada.

"A huge tree, over 100 years old, just fell across the house. It just wrecked the whole thing," said Faye Reed, whose daughter Teenia owns the damaged home north of Sacramento. "They won't be able to live in it. The whole ceiling fell in, and now it's raining inside."

More than a million people from the Bay Area to the Central Valley were in the dark. Crews worked to restore power, but it could be days before all the lights are on, said Pacific Gas & Electric spokeswoman Darlene Chiu.

In Southern California, authorities in Orange County ordered an estimated 3,000 residents to evacuate homes in four canyons scarred by wildfires and therefore prone to mudslides.

The missing family , a man and his twin children had gone out to "play in the snow," and have not been seen since.

John Hopper, 64, a volunteer chaplain with the Clovis police, left town Thursday morning with his 15-year-old twins, Matt and Sarah, to "go play in the snow," Stoll-Lee said.

The family didn't give any indication of where they were heading, and law enforcers heard they were missing only when Hopper's ex-wife reported they hadn't returned late Thursday, she said.

Rangers and police are doing their best to find them, but they really have no idea where they might be. Say a prayer or hope for them.

Bubba Whines: The Media Will Make Us Go Negative

There is something utterly sickening about a former President whining - especially when it's Bill Clinton whining about the media coverage Hillary has been getting. Even more so when he uses that whining as an excuse to say that Hillary will have to go negative on Obama.

Bill Clinton voiced his abiding anger at the media's coverage of him and his wife in Durham, N.H., today, and suggested that media bias will force Clinton to go negative on Barack Obama.

He also expressed his frustration that his wife is perceived by voters as divisive through, he said, no fault of her own.

Clinton, like his wife, is traveling New Hampshire taking questions from voters, and he spoke at the University of New Hampshire in Durham in response to a plea from a woman who said she'd like it "if you and Clinton joined Barack Obama in putting the Republicans on notice" that it was time to "change the game" and end the "meanness" and "manipulation" in politics.

Clinton replied that he liked the idea — in theory.

"I think we can change it as long as you have access to information by people who are committed to judging everybody by the same set of rules and following the same set of rules," he said. "According to the most recent media analysis, that’s not what’s happened so far, but yeah, I think it should be done."

You know, I honestly think Bill Clinton is a pathological liar. He really cannot stop himself from trying to say he (and his wife, added almost as an afterthought) has been treated badly by the press. The media all but anointed Hillary as queen - but that isn't enough for him. The media made me do it is a rotten excuse. It won't wash with the voters.

And whining really does not make Bill Clinton look good. (Incidentally, this is one reason why going on the offensive against the media can be hazardous for a politician. It really does not look good - it makes the attacking politician look weak and desperate.)

Winter Storms Lash Europe

Bulgaria and Romania are reeling under heavy snow that has caused near collapse of the transportation systems. A ship appears to have been lost with all hands in the Black Sea as the storm battered the areas. Bucharest, Romania is buried under as much as two feet of new snow.

Rescuers from Ukraine and Russia are searching for the other crew from the Vanessa. There were 10 Bulgarians and a Ukrainian pilot on board.

The crew reportedly took to life rafts when their ship, carrying iron, sank en route to Burgas in Bulgaria.

Heavy snow has severely disrupted transport in Bulgaria and Romania.

There is transport chaos in the Romanian capital Bucharest, with snow 50-60cm (19.5-23 inches) deep in places.

Bucharest's two airports were closed and train passengers were hit by long delays. The airports later reopened.

Bulgarian airports were also closed, as were ports in both countries. The BBC also has pictures from the storm-ravaged Balkans. Much of Britain has been hit with heavy snows as well, although not as badly as the Balkans. But the winter is wreaking havoc there as well.

Heavy Snow In Pyrenees Leads To Avalanches, Deaths

Heavy snowfalls in the Pyrenees have led to avalanche conditions that have claimed the lives of three skiers in Spain. The snowfall has been so heavy that many ski areas have been forced to close entire sections.

Mountain rescue teams said they were found in an off-piste area near the resort of Formigal.

Two of the skiers died while rescuers tried to resuscitate them, but the body of the third was discovered later.

The avalanche occurred on Friday morning and the centre said a warning had been issued for off-piste areas because of recent heavy snowfalls.

Some of its ski runs have been closed, at what is considered to be a busy period for Spanish resorts.

There have been additional deaths at ski areas in Europe due to extreme snow conditions. One woman died in Austria after being buried in snow, but her three companions were rescued. (I also saw another report of a death at another European ski resort yesterday, but can't locate it at the moment.)

Armed Citizen Stops Armed Robbery

A legally armed citizen stopped an armed robbery at a food store in Indianapolis, Indiana, disarming the would-be holdup man and holding him at gunpoint until police arrived.

Charlie Merrell, 51, was standing in a checkout lane at Bucks IGA Supermarket on Indianapolis' south side when a masked man jumped over a nearby counter and held a gun on a store employee, according to a police report made public Wednesday.

While the suspect demanded cash from workers, Merrell pulled his own handgun, pointed it at the robber and ordered him to put down his weapon, the report said. After a moment the suspect placed his gun and the cash on the counter, removed his mask and lay on the floor. Merrell held him at gunpoint Monday until police arrived and arrested the suspect.

19-year old Dwain Smith is being held on charges including robbery, criminal confinement, pointing a firearm, battery and carrying a handgun without a license. His gun was not loaded. Charlie Merrell's was. And he used it, but didn't even have to pull the trigger.

Kudos to Charlie Merrell for knowing exactly how to handle the situation.

The Arctic Comes To California

Forecasters are warning Californians that they are in for a rough weekend as arctic storms barrel into their state. There are wind, rain, avalanche, blizzard, mudslide, boating and a bunch of other warnings being announced. This is going to be a doozy. Best advice: stock up on supplies and stay home.

SACRAMENTO, Calif. - People throughout California braced themselves as arctic storms moved ashore Friday, threatening to paralyze the mountains with deep snow and bring devastating rains to a coastal landscape already charred by wildfires.

Forecasters warned the fierce winds and other extreme weather would last through the weekend.

Homeowners rushed to stack sandbags around houses lying below fire-ravaged hillsides in Southern California, while Northern California residents — like those along the Gulf Coast before a hurricane — scurried to stock up on last-minute provisions.

In the eastern Sierra ski town of Mammoth Lakes, resident Barbara Sholle went to the supermarket after receiving a call from the town's reverse-911 system. She waited an hour to pay for her groceries amid a crush of residents.

"People were waiting in line for shopping carts," she said.

The storm system began dumping rain and snow Thursday in parts of Northern California. Power outages, damaged electrical lines and downed trees were reported in the Sacramento area by nightfall.

The U.S. Forest Service issued an avalanche warning for Mount Shasta, in the Cascade Range in far Northern California, while the National Weather Service issued a rare blizzard advisory for the Sierra Nevada.

The storm system brought high wind warnings along the coast. Ocean tides were expected to swell to 30 feet, leading the Coast Guard to caution boaters to remain in port.

"If you don't have to go out this weekend, it might be a nice weekend to stay at home after the holidays," said Frank McCarton, chief deputy director of the California Office of Emergency Services.

Meanwhile, there are completely different warnings going out in Florida. Rain warnings, of a sort. Specifically, beware of iguanas falling from the sky as temperatures fall. Plummeting temperatures lead to plummeting iguanas.

MIAMI — The bitter cold that swept across the region came like a giant Sominex pill for the tree-dwelling iguanas of South Florida.

The plummeting temperatures Wednesday night and early Thursday — which hit 39 degrees at Miami International Airport — caused the large green lizards to drop out of the trees and litter the ground.

The cold-blooded reptiles, exotics from Central and South America that can reach six feet in length, maintain a body temperature similar to the air around them. When the temperature falls into the low 40s, their bodies go into a deep sleep — with basically only the heart continuing to function and with little blood flow, experts said.

''The worst part of the cold comes in the evening, and they literally just shut off,'' said Ron Magill, communications director for Miami Metrozoo. “Their bodies shut off and they lose their grip on the tree, and they start falling.''

They aren't dead. At least, most aren't.

It is as if they are in suspended animation, said Robert Yero, park manager at Bill Baggs Cape Florida State Park on Key Biscayne, where it was raining iguanas Thursday morning. Two were underneath buttonwood trees; another lay beneath a sea grape. All were about 30 yards from the beach, in the coastal hammock.

Sleep-falling reptiles plummeting down on passersby is not what you expect in the Southernmost reaches of Florida. But it indicates just how cold it is down there, doesn't it. Our advice: buy an iguana-proof hardhat if you're planning on going for a stroll in the Miami area. Getting bonked on the head by a six-foot somnambulating (somnambu-falling?) iguana could ruin your whole day.

The Expectations Game

John Distaso, senior political reporter for the New Hampshire Union-Leader, plays the expectations game for that state's primary. There are some candidates who may hit the wall there - and others who could be huge winners.

For those who have been leading in the polls and have put the lion's share of their resources and efforts into the Granite State, there is no expectations game. The only expectation is to win.

It's a different story for those not in the top two positions on each side. A strong third-place finish here by Mike Huckabee, for instance, especially coming off a strong showing in the Iowa caucus, would keep him viable moving forward. On the other hand, a fourth-place finish by Rudy Giuliani would be a severe blow, if not devastating, regardless of his campaign's arguments to the contrary.

John Edwards? Should he finish a strong third — close to the second-place finisher — he's in good shape. But should he drop below Bill Richardson, which is unlikely but possible, he's in trouble.

For Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republicans Mitt Romney and John McCain, second-place won't do. Barack Obama may be able to get away with a strong second place. But an Obama win would likely send him to the nomination.

Clinton and Romney led their respective fields throughout 2007. They then saw their leads evaporate. New Hampshire was supposed to be Clinton country — her firewall. Romney is New Hampshire's neighbor and a part-time resident of Wolfeboro. The state was to be his firewall, too. They're expected to win, and they could not convincingly explain away a loss.

McCain has indeed come back from the dead, but he did so by all but ignoring Iowa, while Romney campaigned heavily in both states. McCain has made such an investment in New Hampshire and has been the beneficiary of late momentum generated by a series of newspaper endorsements that now, he cannot afford to lose.

That's about right for McCain. A win in New Hampshire is about the only thing that can keep him alive in the rest of the primaries. I don't know that Obama winning would sink Clinton completely - but it just might. It would certainly strip off any idea that she is destined to win. It might also reinforce the idea that there is a 16-year cycle in all of this (previous post).

Scratching The Itch?

Michael Barone, writing in the Opinion Journal, sees a rather obvious 16-year pattern in American politics. Looking at the elections of 1976, 1992 and now 2008, he wonders if there isn't a 16-year itch in the electorate. He admits the pattern idea does not hold if you go back further to 1960 and 1944, but there are some eerie similarities between 2008 and the previous two 16-year elections. Barone thinks he may have a handle on why this is happening.

Again the pattern: Voters make pretty much the same decisions time and again for 14 years. Then in the 16th year decide they are disgusted with the results.

Why 16 years? Political scientists like to come up with generalizations about voting behavior for all time. The problem is that we don't have the same electorate over time. Political scientists have developed rules for predicting presidential elections based on macroeconomic trends at a time when most voters remembered the trauma of the Great Depression. Most voters today don't and those rules no longer work.

One such rule predicted that Al Gore would get 56% of the vote in 2000, which was 8% off. Your barber or hairdresser could have come closer.

My thought is that, over a period of 16 years, there is enough turnover in the electorate to stimulate an itch that produces a willingness to take a chance on something new.

Over time, the median-age voter in American elections has been about 45 years old. This means that the median-age voter in 1976 was born around 1931–old enough to have experienced post-World War II prosperity and foreign policy success, and then to have been disgusted by Vietnam and Watergate.

The median-age voter in 1992 was born around 1947 (the same year as Dan Quayle and Hillary Clinton, one year after Messrs. Clinton and Bush, one year before Mr. Gore). These voters came of age in the culture wars of the 1960s. They experienced stagflation and gas lines of the 1970s, and the prosperity and foreign policy successes of the 1980s. Mr. Clinton persuaded these voters to take a chance on change by promising not to radically alter policy. They rebuked him when he tried to break that promise, then for 14 years remained closely divided along culture lines as if the '60s never ended.

The median-age voter in 2008 was born around 1963, so he or she missed out on the culture wars of the '60s, and on the economic disasters and foreign policy reverses of the 1970s. These voters have experienced low-inflation economic growth something like 95% of their adult lives–something true of no other generation in history. They are weary of the cultural polarization of our politics, relatively unconcerned about the downside risks of big government programs, and largely unaware of America's historic foreign policy successes. They are ready, it seems, to take a chance on an outside-the-system candidate.

Could it be that voters are actually, unintentionally following this pattern? It is at least plausible. There is much made by pundits and politicians about "change elections" - maybe those change elections have something to do with electoral turnover, so to speak. Stranger things have happened. In a way, Barone's idea is somewhat disturbing. If he's right, it means there is very little in the way of institutional memory in the electorate. Instead there is a selective memory that only remembers the positives and dismisses the negatives. That seems a bit bleak, doesn't it? Go read the whole thing. Barone, as he says, may be on to something.

Hard To Stop

David Yepsen, a political media icon of sorts in Iowa, predicts that Obama is going to be very hard to stop nationally now. Following Obama's impressive win in the Iowa caucuses, Yepsen sees a real problem for Clinton - he is not sure she can recover from this.

*Barack Obama’s big victory may well slingshot him to the nomination and the White House.  He comfortably beat the national  frontrunner, Hillary Clinton, who finished third.  She’s left reeling and the second place finisher, John Edwards, wound up exactly where he was four years ago: In second place.

*Obama’s victory speech was soaring, akin to the great Jefferson Jackson Dinner speech he gave in November.  Clinton and Edwards tried to put a brave face on things but there was no masking the hard realities they face. Obama's going to be a hard guy to stop.

*It is hard to see how Clinton recovers.  Too many Democrats have doubts about her electability and wanted to make a fresh start. It’s also hard to see how she what she can do in the 5 short days before the New Hampshire primary on Tuesday.  In fact, there’s a danger she’ll go negative and sink deeper as she looks desperate.

*It’s hard to see how Edwards recovers. He needed a victory here, a showing better than he had in 2004, to ignite some national attention to his campaign and improve his fund-raising. He didn’t get it and he had a good base and organization in Iowa.  New Hampshire isn’t so strong.
Iowa was a battle to see who would become the alternative to Hillary Clinton.  Edwards lost to Obama.  The anti-Hillary forces are likely to rally around Obama, not Edwards.

Again, it may be far too early to write Clinton off. But if she suddenly goes into full negative mode, she may well sink herself. I've maintained that Hillary would be in trouble if she placed third in Iowa - if she loses New Hampshire as well, she could be in very bad shape indeed. (I'm also predicting that Mark Penn will be looking for employment soon, too.)

Unhappy Returns

The Des Moines Register reports the official results this morning from last night's Iowa Caucuses. There will be no joy in some Mudvilles this morning:

Democrats (100% reporting):

Barack Obama - 38 percent
John Edwards - 30 percent
Hillary Clinton - 29 percent
Bill Richardson - 2 percent

Republicans (96% reporting)

Mike Huckabee 39,814 - 34 percent
Mitt Romney 29,405 - 25 percent
Fred Thompson 15,521 - 13 percent
John McCain 15,248 - 13 percent

Dodd and Biden have dropped out altogether. Most importantly, more than 2/3 of Democrats rejected Hillary Clinton's "inevitability." Is that fatal to her campaign? Of course not. She has gobs of money and impressive organizations in many places. But it stung her - and it really means she is going to have to work a heck of a lot harder to stay in this. Because a lot of the math just changed.

The math has changed on the Republican side as well. A much ballyhooed McCain rebound didn't happen. A virtual unknown came out of nowhere and pulled off an upset. I'm not sure that Huckabee can repeat his victory in other states yet, so I'm not sure how to interpret that result. It certainly derailed a lot of plans, though. Romney invested heavily in Iowa and got beaten badly.

All the pundits had pretty much called the Republican race unsettled , but it seems the Democratic race is just as unsettled - something they did not predict at all.