The Expectations Game
John Distaso, senior political reporter for the New Hampshire Union-Leader, plays the expectations game for that state's primary. There are some candidates who may hit the wall there - and others who could be huge winners.
For those who have been leading in the polls and have put the lion's share of their resources and efforts into the Granite State, there is no expectations game. The only expectation is to win.
It's a different story for those not in the top two positions on each side. A strong third-place finish here by Mike Huckabee, for instance, especially coming off a strong showing in the Iowa caucus, would keep him viable moving forward. On the other hand, a fourth-place finish by Rudy Giuliani would be a severe blow, if not devastating, regardless of his campaign's arguments to the contrary.
John Edwards? Should he finish a strong third — close to the second-place finisher — he's in good shape. But should he drop below Bill Richardson, which is unlikely but possible, he's in trouble.
For Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republicans Mitt Romney and John McCain, second-place won't do. Barack Obama may be able to get away with a strong second place. But an Obama win would likely send him to the nomination.
Clinton and Romney led their respective fields throughout 2007. They then saw their leads evaporate. New Hampshire was supposed to be Clinton country — her firewall. Romney is New Hampshire's neighbor and a part-time resident of Wolfeboro. The state was to be his firewall, too. They're expected to win, and they could not convincingly explain away a loss.
McCain has indeed come back from the dead, but he did so by all but ignoring Iowa, while Romney campaigned heavily in both states. McCain has made such an investment in New Hampshire and has been the beneficiary of late momentum generated by a series of newspaper endorsements that now, he cannot afford to lose.
That's about right for McCain. A win in New Hampshire is about the only thing that can keep him alive in the rest of the primaries. I don't know that Obama winning would sink Clinton completely - but it just might. It would certainly strip off any idea that she is destined to win. It might also reinforce the idea that there is a 16-year cycle in all of this (previous post).
By syn, Friday, 4 January , 2008 @ 10:26 am
In Iowa, Thompson who began campaigning in Nov 2007 was slightly ahead of McCain whose been campaigning since 1999.
I’m not getting it.
If it’s about the courts, how come McCain, Guiliani and Romney are considered front runners?
They immediately raised their hands to the populist Al Gore Greenie fad, do you really trust those three to put them in the White House?