Scenarios
Over at The New York Post, Dick Morris and Eileen McGann have an analysis of where the Democrat and Republican races stand at the moment that will make people think. They predict that the outcome of the Democratic contest should be decided by the time the "Super Tuesday" primaries are finished. But they have a fairly dismal take on the Republican contest. It may actually come down to a brokered convention.
Hillary cannot be knocked out even if she loses all the early primaries. Her berth in the finals is assured by her national standing, her strength among “super delegates" (Congressmen, Senators, Governors and State Party Chairmen who automatically get votes at the convention) and her financial clout. But she can and will be bloodied. Meanwhile, if Obama wins in New Hampshire, particularly if he does so by a convincing margin (which we think is likely) he will probably go on to sweep Nevada and South Carolina, the other two early primaries. His status as front runner will be solidified - and that's where his troubles will start.
Once Hillary is no longer in the dock, undergoing the scrutiny of being a front runner, Obama will have to endure the slings and arrows. Hillary will probably play the race card. Not overtly and not directly, but she will speak in code saying that Obama can't win. What that really means is that a black cannot prevail in 2008 in the United States. We, presumably, aren't ready.
But Obama will benefit from a generational surge that animated his Iowa victory. In the caucuses, he carried voters under 30 by four-to-one. In a contest that had been about transcending race and gender, the key factor on which it turned was age. Generation X saw in Obama a way to push the boomers off the stage, taking their drugs and permissive lifestyle with them. To these young voters, Obama is the future and the Clintons are the distant past.
Unfortunately, I suspect that Hillary will do exactly what Morris is predicting. Morris, of course, knows the Clintons far too well to have any illusions about what they are capable of. I'll send you over to the post to read their take on the Republican scenarios. It isn't particularly pleasant, nor do I think it is a disaster in the making, however. I think it is going to come down to who wins the Democratic nomination - and how the winner gets there. If it is Clinton and if she wins by playing a soft racism card, she will lose to whoever the Republicans field.
By NortonPete, Sunday, 6 January , 2008 @ 10:16 am
I agree with the Democrat race analysis, but not so much with the Republican side. There wasn’t enough thought given to Fred Thompson.
He is dismissed as someone who couldn’t be raised from the dead.
I’ve complained before he wasn’t trying hard enough yet but that might be his plan.
I’m thinking back to Indy race car drivers’ strategies and one AJ Foyt. When AJ was asked where we wanted to be toward the last laps of a race, he said something like “Behind the car I’m measuring up to pass on the last lap”. Seemed to work for him.
By bill-tb, Sunday, 6 January , 2008 @ 11:45 am
I ask a simple question, when was the last time Dick Morris was right, about anything? He is like a weather vane. The real voting starts in SC for Republicans, then we will see. Both Iowa and NH are liberal states, not good indicators of Republican preferences.