Bad Polls?
As frequent commenter feeblemind points out in comments, the polls predicting a Clinton defeat in New Hampshire were - virtually across the board - wrong. Spectacularly wrong, in fact. Clinton pulled off a victory by about 3% instead of losing by double digits. Why were the polls so wrong? Sorry, I have no clue. Something was wrong, as I said, in almost every poll. The media is scrambling right now trying to figure out what went wrong. The Washington Post looks at the breakdowns in the numbers this morning:
Clinton benefited from a large gender gap, one that never materialized in Iowa. In New Hampshire, exit polls showed that 57 percent of the electorate was female and that she won the group by 12 percentage points; she lost women in Iowa by five points.
Clinton also picked up 28 percent of voters younger than 30, after getting only 11 percent of young caucusgoers in Iowa. In another big switch, Clinton got 28 percent of voters prioritizing "change," up 9 percentage points from Iowa.
A different mix on the issues also helped her. Among Democratic voters, the economy was the top issue, and she had a nine-point edge among these voters after losing them by 10 points in Iowa. Independents favored Obama, breaking for him by more than 10 percentage points. First-time voters also tilted toward Obama, though they were not as large a factor as they were in his Iowa victory. And as in Iowa, there was a generational divide: Obama pulled 51 percent of voters younger than 30, compared with 28 percent for Clinton, while Clinton won 4 percent of voters older than 65, compared with 32 percent for Obama.
Not apparent in the numbers was any evidence that Clinton had benefited from a moment on Monday when she choked up while describing how personal her campaign had become. Still, the flash of emotion shifted the dynamic of her campaign, suggesting that Clinton had cast aside caution in order to show a more human side.
Turnout in New Hampshire soared to more than 500,000 voters overall, including 276,000 who participated in the Democratic contest, up from 220,000 four years ago. The Obama campaign puzzled over the returns throughout the evening. The candidate and his wife, Michelle, had dinner at their hotel near the rally site, waiting for the race to be called, and held out hope that college towns reporting their returns late would swing the race in his favor.
I wrote just yesterday that I did not believe the Clinton campaign was anywhere near dead. Obviously, that is even more true now that she pulled off this upset in New Hampshire. I'm not at all sure the demographics of her win look real good for the general election, though. She isn't doing all that well with younger voters and it is not apparent that those who did vote for Obama will turn around and support Clinton. But the race is far from over at this point.
By syn, Wednesday, 9 January , 2008 @ 9:59 am
The majority of ‘over-the-age-of-40 women who believe they’re going to end up as hapless bag-ladies living on the streets’ will be electing the one who tells them that the Federal government will care for them in their old age.
AARP is the most powerful voting bloc in America and Hillarycares appeals to them; don’t forget this is the generation after the Greatest Generation who have never learned neither how to take care of themselves or the meaning of sacrificing for the next generation’s best interest.
I can’t tell you just how disappointed I am that my gender failed to live up to the hype of ‘breaking the glass ceiling’ and ‘female empowerment’ tripe I’ve had to endure all my life.
By David M, Wednesday, 9 January , 2008 @ 10:16 am
The Thunder Run has linked to this post in the - Web Reconnaissance for 01/09/2008 A short recon of what’s out there that might draw your attention, updated throughout the day…so check back often.