The Mess They’re In
Dan Balz at the Washington Post points out just how bad a problem the Democrats have because of the sanctions imposed by the DNC on Michigan and Florida. Stripping the two states of their delegates when they moved their primaries up has handed the party a nightmare scenario.
The clever people in Michigan who decided to get into a game of chicken with New Hampshire last fall over the timing of their Democratic primary should be having second thoughts this weekend.
Had Michigan Democrats not engaged in gamesmanship over the shape of the nomination calendar, they would be holding the premier contest on today's slate, by far the biggest and most influential of the events between Super Tuesday and next week's Potomac primaries, rather than the nonbinding event that was held Jan. 15.
Michigan Democrats long argued that the party needed a major industrial state playing an early and influential role in the nominating process. Instead, Michigan Democrats — and those in Florida — have left their party with a monumental problem: what to do about their delegations to the national convention in Denver in August.
There is a growing sense of urgency about the need to deal with the Michigan-Florida issue, but no easy resolution. What happens could decide whether Hillary Rodham Clinton or Barack Obama becomes the party's presidential nominee.
The Democratic National Committee sanctioned Michigan and Florida for moving up their nominating contests in violation of party rules; it declared their primaries unofficial and denied them the right to seat their delegations in Denver. At the time of the sanctions, there was a widespread assumption that the eventual nominee would relent and allow both states full participation at the convention.
That was when it was also assumed that there would be an early outcome to the Clinton-Obama contest and that the winner could appear magnanimous toward two states with pivotal roles in the general election. That was when it was assumed the delegates wouldn't matter in the nomination battle. Today, it's clear they could.
Clinton won both Michigan and Florida handily. She won Michigan in part because Obama and other Democrats took their names off the ballot in solidarity with the DNC and as part of a pledge to Iowa, New Hampshire and other early-voting states not to participate in unsanctioned contests.
Obama and John Edwards were on the ballot in Florida because there was no way to remove their names, but none of the candidates campaigned there. Clinton flew in the night of the primary for a victory party in an effort to blunt Obama's momentum after his win in South Carolina.
"The Florida and Michigan situation is untenable in its current form and unacceptable to go into a nominating convention [where Clinton and Obama] could be separated by the number of delegates in those states," said Tad Devine, a Democratic strategist and veteran of presidential delegate wars. "If you go into the convention with that kind of cloud hanging over your head, it's a very dangerous situation."
Anything they do will reek of selecting the winner. They are thinking of running caucuses in both states - which will surely bring howls of outrage from Clinton supporters. The Clinton camp has already demanded that the delegates that she "won" (by skirting the agreements) be seated as is. There will be a lot of nastiness and acrimony over this.
Get the popcorn ready.
By NortonPete, Saturday, 9 February , 2008 @ 9:49 am
I’m reading some very angry comments on different news websites ( like abcnews ), about the above issue.
A number of them are threatening to leave the Democratic party if this plays out unfairly in their minds and then vote for McCain.
By terrence, Saturday, 9 February , 2008 @ 12:18 pm
Hillary will do all she can to secure the Michigan and Florida delegates. I can see her tearing up, biting her lip, and sobbing about doing it for the people of Michigan and Florida, and protecting their right to be heard, and have their votes counted. She will compare anyone who opposes her courageous move to “give voice” to these oppressed voters to EVIL GWB in Florida STEALING the election from Saint Algore.
By martian, Saturday, 9 February , 2008 @ 12:55 pm
NortonPete, maybe those people will make up for the hardheaded conservative Republicans who are vowing to sit this one out? NAAAAAAAAAAAAAH! Wishful thinking.
terrence, I will be very surprised if we don’t see at least some of your scenario played out.
By NortonPete, Saturday, 9 February , 2008 @ 1:33 pm
Martian,
If you are completely hung-up on fairness in politics, then what’s going on in demi land is going to create a big negative fallout. McCain has some strength in the “fairness” race.
By Uncle Pinky, Saturday, 9 February , 2008 @ 8:33 pm
NortonPete,
You often have a turn of phrase that is worth emulation, but demi land (sans hyphenation) may be the best so far.
Somehow it connotates an intractable futility. Thank you.
By Sam Wah, Saturday, 9 February , 2008 @ 11:56 pm
Couldn’t happen to a nicer bunch of folks, says I (yup, goal-post moving and rules-changing our specialties.)